THE 2024 ANNUAL PUBLIC
REPORT
Public action to adapt to climate change
Summary report
March 2024
2
The overall situation of the public finances (at the
end of February 2024)
3
The overall situation of the public finances (at the
end of February 2024)
Strong inflationary pressures and high energy prices marked 2022 and 2023, which
weakened the economic recovery from the health crisis and pushed back the end of the
"whatever it costs" approach. As a result, France started 2024 with one of the worst public
finances in the eurozone. The financial provisions for the year were based on an over-optimistic
growth forecast of 1.4 %, which the government decided to lower to 1.0 % in February, and
which is still high in relation to the forecasts of national and international bodies (0.7 % is the
consensus of economists). This downward revision is accompanied by savings measures
designed to maintain the deficit forecast and the multi-year trajectory set out in the public
finance programming bill. At a time when the debt burden is rising rapidly, the multi-year
trajectory of bringing the deficit back below 3 % by 2027 will require major efforts to control
spending, which must be identified and reinforced quickly.
A deficit that will remain high in 2024, despite the scheduled end of inflation-
related support measures
Against a backdrop of a marked slowdown in economic activity, with real growth of 1 %,
there was no change in 2023 in terms of the reduction in the public deficit, which is expected
to reach 4.9 % of gross domestic product (GDP), compared with 4.8 % in 2022. Prices,
particularly energy prices, remained high and the exceptional support and stimulus measures
were only slightly reduced, while tax revenue, unlike in the previous two years, was lacklustre.
For 2024, the government is forecasting a reduction of 0.5 points of GDP in the public
deficit, to 4.4 % of GDP, as a result of phasing out exceptional measures.
No new structural savings were planned in the Budget Act for 2024, with only the pension
and unemployment insurance reforms, already underway, to curb spending. The government
must now urgently make savings estimated at €10bn to offset the fall in revenue due to lower
growth and maintain this target balance. Even in this scenario, national debt would reach
almost 110 points of GDP at the end of the year, or €3,200bn, up by more than €800bn
compared with 2019. Between 2023 and 2024, the debt burden is expected to increase by
€10bn, to €57bn. As a result, France's public finances remain among the worst in the
eurozone.
4
National debt and structural deficit trends in the main European countries
between 2019 and 2023 (as a % of GDP)
Source: november 2023 European Commission forecast
Significantly reducing the deficit, putting national debt on a downward trajectory and
preserving growth potential are the three objectives set for the 2023-2027 multi-year trajectory.
Complying with these three objectives is all the more necessary given that the public finance
situations of eurozone countries, and France in particular, have veered off course with the
crisis, creating increased risks of instability.
A credible path for bringing the deficit back below 3 % in 2027
The multi-year trajectory for 2023-2027 set out in the Public Finance Programming Bill
(LPFP) enacted on 18 December 2023 appears problematic in the light of France's European
commitments. The public deficit is not expected to fall below 3 points of GDP until 2027, and
debt as a proportion of GDP would only fall very slightly at the very end of the period. This
trajectory is not very ambitious, even though it is underpinned by favourable macroeconomic
assumptions up to 2027 and forecasts a marked slowdown in public spending (excluding
interest expenditure) compared with historical trends.
5
Growth rate of public spending, excluding interest expenditure and exceptional
measures, in real terms* (in %)
Source: Insee and the Public Finance Programming Bill
* Volumes have been calculated using the consumer price index excluding
tobacco.
Government's spending trajectory assumes not only that the target balance for 2024 will
be maintained, but also that around €50bn of new savings will be made between 2025 and
2027 compared with the pre-crisis trend. However, these savings measures are essentially
unsubstantiated at this stage, as the effects of the pension and unemployment insurance
reforms have already been taken into account. Such an effort will be all the more difficult to
implement as many sectoral programming laws (Defence, Justice, Home Affairs, Research)
are already increasing spending for several ministries, and the ecological transition is expected
to prompt a growing amount of private and public funding.
Moreover, this trajectory confirms a growing social security deficit, since the balance of
the mandatory basic schemes and the Old Age Solidarity Fund (FSV) is set to deteriorate,
rising from €8.7bn in 2023 to €17.2bn in 2027, meaning that the burden of today's social
benefits will be passed on to future generations.
The margins of safety around the LPFP trajectory therefore appear to be extremely small.
Any unpleasant macroeconomic surprises between now and 2027, or any budgetary
performance that falls short of the stated ambitions, would run the risk of increasing the public
debt ratio over the programming period.
It is essential to demonstrate selectiveness in spending and to offset any additional
expenditure or tax cuts with savings or increases in revenue. It will also be crucial to undertake
ambitious reforms in certain key sectors to bring about a lasting change in the pace of
spending, and to make improvements in the quality of spending a top priority.
6
General summary
Article L.143-8 of the French Financial Courts Code stipulates that the Court of Account's
annual public report (APR) "shall include findings and recommendations resulting from audits
or evaluations relating to a major public action issue to which [it] wishes to draw the attention
of the public authorities and help inform citizens". In accordance with these provisions, the
Court has decided to devote its 2024 APR to public action to adapt to climate change.
The effects of climate change are considered to have two main types of impact, involving
both general repercussions on economic activity and specific consequences for certain
business sectors:
⚫
the impact on major infrastructure, facilities, towns and cities and, more generally,
housing (which has been built);
⚫
the impact on the physical and biological environment (coastline, forests, crops, etc.)
and on individuals (during heatwaves, increased fire or flood risk, etc.).
16 themes were examined, which, with the exception of three that were more cross-
sectoral, fall into these two main categories.
For several years now, in its regular publications on the state of public finances, the Court
has been stressing the need for public administrations to prepare for funding the cost of the
ecological transition. The issue of a precise valuation of the amount and the distribution
between public and private stakeholders of the burden of the "wall of investments" to be made
in order, in particular, to adapt the economy and society to the effects of climate change, is
actually of crucial importance. However, the issue of adapting to climate change cannot be
approached solely from an economic and financial perspective. First and foremost, it requires
political choices to be made in all areas of public action. It is from this perspective that the
audits carried out by the Court and the
Regional And Territorial Chambers Of Account
in 2023
to support this report were conducted.
The financial courts have endeavoured to identify the main lessons to be learned from
this body of work in the light of the major questions that French people are posing when, as is
increasingly the case, the issue of adapting their living environment, their surroundings and
their activities comes to the fore, particularly at the time of climate-related disasters, the
frequency, intensity, location or scale of which were hitherto unknown in mainland France or
the overseas territories (heatwaves, forest fires, cyclones, etc.).
The first question is what to expect in specific terms, and when: the French people want
to understand and prepare for the consequences of climate change on their daily lives.
They also wonder how the efforts required to adapt should be identified, decided on and
shared between all the stakeholders involved (public authorities, businesses, households, non-
profit organisations, researchers, etc.): adaptation should not be seen solely from a technical
angle, it is also a democratic issue for the French people.
The complexity of adaptation and the scale of the expenditure involved, at a time when
the state of public finances remains worrying, are finally leading the population to ask
themselves how we can design, finance and implement solutions that are both appropriate and
sustainable: what can we do that is effective at the lowest cost?
Echoing these questions, the work of the financial courts underlines the need for public
action adapting to climate change to be transparent, coherent and efficient.
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The need for transparency
The urgency of adaptation is now well recognised, as is the need to link it with the fight
against global warming, which must not be neglected. These two priorities should be
reconciled, not set against each other. The new urgency of adaptation stems from the fact that
the fight against global warming is taking so long to have an effect: it is not in any way the
abandonment of mitigation.
However, there are many uncertainties surrounding this priority. They are linked to the
diversity of responses required at various regional levels and over different timelines. They
also result from the need to deal with a number of different risks in many areas. The
intensification and acceleration of the effects of climate change are also a source of uncertainty
when it comes to categorising and sequencing the measures to be taken to deal with it. Climate
change is therefore overtaking the natural adaptation of forests, thus requiring the
implementation of measures that had not been anticipated until now. Similarly, the accelerating
effects of climate change in mountain areas are liable to compromise the economic viability of
a large number of winter sports resorts sooner than previously thought.
The implementation of public action requires us to reduce as far as possible these many
kinds of uncertainties. The aim is to gather the data needed to make accurate and reliable
projections, and to adapt the applicable standards to take account of changing risks. In all
three areas
–
data, projections and standards
–
the work of the financial courts highlights the
extent of the progress that needs to be made.
In this context, informing the public is a major issue to ensure public support for the
process. It must address the risks and the choices to be made in response, but also the
opportunities offered by adaptation to climate change. The increased use of the
MaPrimeRénov'
scheme as a means of funding comprehensive retrofit projects as part of the
housing policy should both improve the comfort of residents' homes and encourage building
firms to recruit professionals with the skills to carry out this type of work.
There will always be a degree of uncertainty, which should not be paralysing: given the
urgency of adaptation in many areas, public authorities must accept this and act, by setting
objectives that are consistent with the state of knowledge, determining a trajectory for
achieving them and demonstrating agility if changes in projections require objectives to be
modified or the trajectory to be adapted.
The need for coherence
Coherence means reconciling the objectives of adaptation to climate change with those
of other public policies with which it is in line or opposition.
In many areas, adaptation objectives need to be coordinated with those of economic
development. The measures to be taken to adapt the coastline to the risks of coastal erosion
and flooding may be constrained by the desire of the populations and elected representatives
concerned to ensure the continued existence of activities, particularly tourism, threatened by
the retreat of the coastline. The objectives of adaptation may also need to be combined with
those of urban planning policy. In order to take effective action against forest fires, urban
planning documents drawn up by municipalities or groups of municipalities must restrict
building in forested areas or sectors posing particular risks.
Adapting to climate change also means protecting ecosystems, landscapes, spaces and
natural resources. This is particularly true of water resources, on which, for example, nuclear
power plants and hydroelectric facilities are both dependent for the operation and safety of
their installations, which means that delicate trade-offs have to be made.
Coherent public action also requires appropriate planning, but also trade-offs and the
coordination of stakeholders at an appropriate scale, national, regional or local depending on
the topic.
8
Audits show that there are often gaps in planning. The third National Climate Change
Adaptation Plan (PNACC), which was being finalised when this report was published, will have
to fill these gaps. However, the implementation of appropriate planning is a necessary but not
sufficient condition to ensure the coherence of public action to adapt to climate change.
Although there are many stakeholders involved, there also needs to be a leader to make
decisions and coordinate. From this angle too, the report reveals a mixed picture. It shows, for
example, that government is not yet fully assuming its role as the operational leader of
adaptation with regard to its property policy, which it has so far focused on reducing
greenhouse gas emissions from buildings. It also emerges that the issue of coordinating the
actions of entities of ‘municipal groupings’
is a major challenge of coherence for public action
to adapt urban centres, the coastline or mountain resorts, which must be designed and
implemented on an intermunicipal rather than a municipal scale.
The government, for its part, must set targets and define a trajectory for achieving them.
For example, it is responsible for determining the expected level of availability of the rail
network according to the severity of the hazards encountered.
The need for efficiency
The context of urgency or of understanding the effects of climate change over time, which
characterises, for example, the policy of preventing climate-related natural disasters overseas,
carries with it the risk of maladaptation, i.e. measures designed to reduce the vulnerability of a
natural or human system that actually lead to increasing it. A typical example is the systematic
or overzealous use of snowmaking equipment by some mountain resorts. Another is the over-
reliance on air conditioning in response to the increasing number and intensity of heatwaves.
The stakeholders involved are sometimes at a loss to choose the most effective solutions
and determine the timetable for implementing them. Research has a major role to play in
providing them with solutions that are constantly adapted to risks that are themselves evolving.
The work of the financial courts shows that, on the ground, support for it is mixed. The
adaptation of cereal farming benefits from the contributions by a comprehensive and effective
public and private research and innovation system. However, research is struggling to provide
operators and businesses in the forestry and timber sector with practical solutions for adapting
to the effects of climate change. Similarly, in the housing sector, the lack of technical
knowledge means that it is not yet possible to devise practical and sustainable solutions in
response to the risks of flooding and the shrinkage and swelling of clay soils.
In all cases, deciding between the available options must be preceded by an accurate
assessment of the current and future costs of adaptation, which is still too often incomplete or
even non-existent, due to a lack of sufficient data and sometimes also a lack of clear objectives.
This is typically the case in the housing sector, where these two shortcomings currently make
it impossible to put an overall figure on the cost of adapting the housing stock. However, ‘true
pricing’ is an essential decision
-making element in defining and implementing financially
sustainable solutions. These assessments are also essential for measuring, more accurately
than hitherto, the overall impact that adapting to climate change will have on public finances.
However, adapting to climate change requires more than just new operating expenditure
and investment. Other levers for public action need to be activated to empower stakeholders
and encourage them to adapt. The aim is to encourage businesses, households and non-profit
organisations to act or to change their behaviour through regulation, by influencing the prices
of goods and services or by introducing financial solidarity mechanisms.
The financial sector thus offers an example of the benefits of encouraging adaptation
through regulation and pricing. In this field, the primary criterion for allocating finance remains
financial profitability, not environmental impact. It is only by changing the economic and
financing conditions for businesses, in order to shift the profitability sliders, that a greater
proportion of capital will be channelled into financing the ecological transition in general and
adaptation to climate change in particular.
9
The introduction of financial solidarity mechanisms is also a way of bringing together, on
a relevant geographical basis, all the stakeholders involved in adaptation. The report thus
mentions the prospect of creating a fund to assist the redevelopment of the coastline, which
local authorities and groups of municipalities located on the seafront could use to finance
actions jointly funded by government, subject to a spending target that they would have to
meet from their other resources.
Lastly, the effective rollout of adaptation actions presupposes that decision-makers are
encouraged to use the data, tools and solutions made available to them. Adapting forests to
climate change and taking preventive action against forest fires means developing engineering
and the project management capability of local stakeholders as close to the forest as possible.
The same applies to adapting to the changing coastline, which involves coastal areas in highly
complex actions and projects, requiring rare skills.
The issue of adapting to climate change concerns all areas of public action. It primarily
concerns public administrations
–
government departments, local and regional authorities,
national and local public agencies, public companies
–
but it must also involve all stakeholders
in society: households, businesses, the education community, non-profit organisations, the
research community, etc.
However, the public is at the heart of this. Nothing can be done without them, let alone
against them: the yellow vests crisis has shown that the French want to be involved in the
decisions that directly affect their daily lives.
Nevertheless, many of the measures that are likely to be implemented in response to the
effects of global warming will affect their lives in the most essential areas: food, housing,
transport, leisure activities and so on.
They therefore need to be convinced of the need for clear, coherent and effective action
at the lowest possible cost, but also of the opportunities offered by adaptation to improve their
quality of life, develop solidarity between generations and regions, and encourage job creation
and economic growth.
That is the aim of this report.
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Introductory chapter
The latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
emphasise that, despite measures to mitigate climate change, which primarily involve reducing
greenhouse gas emissions, climate change is inevitable over the course of this century. In
addition to the urgency of mitigation, there is now a more widespread awareness of the need
for adaptation.
Climate change mitigation and adaptation
Source: ministry of energy transition / National Observatory for
the Effects of Global Warming (ONERC)
Has France fully grasped these challenges? Have Government and local authorities
made enough changes to existing public policies or developed new ones to deal with the
situation? It is illusory to hope for definitive answers to these questions. As climate change
itself is gradual, France and each of its territories will also have to adapt to it gradually.
Nevertheless, it is possible to examine, sector by sector, whether or not adaptation in
our country has begun to be considered, and to assess its initial impact.
This exercise is all the more useful given that public adaptation policies, which impact
businesses and households, will begin to weigh on national and local public finances, and that
not adapting, or adapting badly, could ultimately prove much more costly.
Increasingly significant climate change
While temperatures have been rising since the beginning of the last century, the IPCC's
reports shed light on how the climate could evolve. To date, international efforts to try to
mitigate climate change have been insufficient.
Effects already measurable, but dependent on trends in greenhouse gas emissions
With the advent of the industrial era, the world gradually entered a period of
anthropogenic climate change, i.e. change caused by human activities.
The rise in average global surface temperatures, observed since the beginning of the
20th
century, has been greater since 1980.
The IPCC estimates that the average temperature rise over the last decade (2011-2020)
has already reached 1.1°C compared with the period 1850-1900. Its sixth report presents five
scenarios for climate change between now and 2100 based on greenhouse gas emissions. It
shows that, in the most favourable scenario, the rise in average temperatures would be close
to 1.5°C in both 2050 and 2100, and that the intermediate scenario, the closest to current
greenhouse gas emission trajectories, would lead to a rise of 2°C by the middle of the century
and close to 3°C by 2100.
11
This report also highlights the correlation between the rise in average temperatures and
the increase in extreme weather events (rainfall intensity, temperature extremes, severity of
droughts, etc.).
Change in the number of days with dry ground from now until the end of the
century
Source: Météo France, DRIAS 2020 projections
For further reading:
Difference in the number of days with dry ground (SWI < 0.4): difference between
the period concerned and the reference period;
For RCP4.5: Scenario with moderate emissions.
Distant future (2071-2100)
–
Current average.
Multi-model result: median of the entire SIM2 hydrological model forced by the
DRIAS-2020 set of climate simulations.
Finally, it points out that as average temperatures rise, they will vary from region to
region. In mainland France, temperatures are changing and will continue to change more
strongly than the global average. According to
Météo France
, since 2010, the average annual
temperature has been consistently 1.5 to over 2°C higher than during the 1961-1990 period.
In this context, the IPCC's intermediate scenario would result in a rise in temperatures of
around 3.8°C for mainland France by the end of the century. The warming is expected to be
greater in mountainous areas than in low-lying areas, and there is likely to be an increasingly
marked gap between south-east and north-west over time. The situation in each overseas
territory will also be specific.
International mobilisation with limited impact
The international community has gradually come together to try and mitigate climate
change. To date, this mobilisation has proved insufficient. From the outset, the European Union
has been a driving force in international mobilisation. Following the Paris Agreement, it has set
itself the goal of achieving net zero by 2050, starting with a reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions of at least 55 % by 2030.
Since the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, emissions from developed countries, including France,
have fallen; those from intermediate countries have risen sharply, as have those from the world
as a whole. At this stage, the sum of all the commitments made does not make it possible to
12
meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. To assess what we will have to adapt to throughout
the 21st
century, we therefore need to pay attention to the IPCC scenarios, which are more
pessimistic than the one corresponding to compliance with the Paris Agreement.
Adaptation policies gradually being developed, to be rolled out across the
regions
Adaptation policies are more progressive than mitigation policies and are necessarily
regional. In France, as elsewhere, they have only been developed relatively recently.
Adapting to the effects of climate change is complex and multi-faceted
Policies to adapt to climate change take place on different timescales depending on its
effects. They also presuppose adapting to three types of phenomena: higher global
temperatures; the resulting long-term structural and physical changes, such as rising sea
levels, melting glaciers and thawing permafrost; and one-off extreme weather events:
heatwaves, droughts, extreme rainfall and storms.
In view of these varied phenomena, adaptation policies need to be territory-based: each
country, each region, each territory must adapt to changes in its own environment. However,
Météo France
stresses that the levels of uncertainty in terms of the magnitude of each of these
effects are significantly higher than those relating to temperature changes under the IPCC
scenarios. Adaptation policies will face this difficulty in the long term.
Insofar as climatic hazards are set to increase, the strengthening of policies to reduce
vulnerability will not dispense with the need to strengthen crisis management systems, or to
debate the definition of the targeted level of safety in the light of the risks identified.
Adaptation: a well-identified need, with implementation frameworks gradually being
developed
In France, there have been several stages in the development of adaptation policies over
the last twenty years.
The first national adaptation strategy (adopted in November 2006) was presented as a
report for decision-makers, stressing the need to draw up a genuine national adaptation plan.
The law of 3 August 2009 provided for the preparation of a national climate change
adaptation plan (PNACC). The first PNACC, adopted in July 2011 for the period 2011-2015,
identified 20 areas broken down into 242 measures. The cost of their implementation to the
state budget
was estimated at around €170m.
The PNACC 2, adopted in December 2018 for a new five-year period, aims to adapt from
the middle of the 21st
century to a regional climate in mainland France and the overseas
territories consistent with a global temperature rise of 2°C compared with the pre-industrial era.
It is refocused on six main areas, grouping together 29 themes. However, PNACC 2 no longer
covers topics such as energy, industry, transport infrastructure or mountains, which figured
prominently in the first plan.
The G
overnment’s cumulative budgetary expenditure under this plan was estimated at
€2.9bn at the end of 2022, for that relating to the national territory, i.e. an annual average of
€600m. This amount does not include development aid, adaptation expenditure by p
ublic
companies, expenditure committed at national level within a framework other than the PNACC
2, such as the recovery plan or the Green Fund, or expenditure by local authorities.
The preparation of PNACC 3, which should be finalised in 2024, is taking place within a
radically new framework in terms of climate scenarios. The proposal is to prepare for global
warming of 2°C in 2030, 2.7°C in 2050 and 4°C in 2100 in mainland France.
As with previous plans, all the adaptation policies implemented in France will not be
limited to the PNACC 3. At national level, these are supplemented by sectoral strategies. At a
local level, regional plans for planning, sustainable development and regional equality
13
(SRADDET), local climate-air-energy plans (PCAET) and other planning documents will have
an important role to play in their development and implementation.
If a warming trajectory leading to 4° C by 2100 were to be adopted, the content of PNACC
3 would have to be significantly different from that of the two previous plans, as would the
budgetary effort required. In this respect, the absence of comprehensive and coherent figures
for all public stakeholders is particularly noteworthy at this stage.
The effects of climate change are generally considered to have two main types of impact:
• the impact on major infrastructure, facilities, towns and cities and, more generally,
housing (which has been built);
• the impact on the physical and biological environment (coastline, forests, crops, etc.)
and on individuals (during heatwaves, increased fire or flood risk, etc.).
The Court examined 16 topics that fall mainly into these two broad categories. Naturally,
these 16 chapters are not intended to be comprehensive. However, the variety of areas
examined gives a specific picture of the challenges that France is having to and will have to
face, the way in which it is preparing for them
–
or not
–
to date, and the initial results of the
national adaptation policy.
14
Part One:
Cross-sectoral public actions
1. The place and role of public research in adapting to climate change
2. Helping the economy adapt to climate change: the role of financial institutions and
banks
3. Development aid and adaptation to climate change: the contribution of the French
Development Agency [
Agence française de développement
] (AFD)
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The place and role of public research in adapting to
climate change
Research plays a key role in adapting to climate change, particularly through the support
provided by the French climate science community to the climate projections of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Its role is part of a
continuum
, with
research for adaptation including research on adaptation and all the infrastructure, data and
knowledge that form its basis, as well as research at the intersection of climate change
adaptation and mitigation, which is crucial for limiting maladaptation. To support its analysis,
the Court relied in particular on more than 40,000 citations of publications mentioned in the
IPCC reports.
France is a world leader in climate science, with a more modest position in
adaptation and mitigation
French research stands out in the climate sciences and, to a lesser extent, in the fields
of adaptation and mitigation (see diagram below).
Place and role of research in adaptation
Source: Court of Accounts
Research into risk, vulnerability and adaptation has a variable impact depending on the
sector and territory. As the graph below shows, French research ranks at the highest
international level in the fields of biodiversity and ecosystem services, Mediterranean areas
and coastal and island areas. France is also well positioned in agricultural, forestry and water-
related issues. However, it is not sufficiently positioned in the areas of health, urban planning,
cities and development. The graph below also shows that overseas territories are poorly
represented overall. Climate projections for overseas France must be implemented rapidly.
16
Impact of French research on adaptation by sector (% of citations worldwide)
Source: Court of Accounts analyses based on citations from the IPCC (6th
cycle) cross-referenced with Hal
In terms of IPCC citations, at least 7 % of French laboratories have contributed to work
on adaptation and at least 3 % more directly on adaptation issues. However, the level of
involvement in adaptation remains variable, with a handful of laboratories accounting for these
citations. Humanities and social sciences are underrepresented. Scientific ecosystems remain
compartmentalised. This weakness, which is not specific to France, increases the risk of
maladaptation. With a few exceptions, the main French operators all specialise in climate
science.
Resources to be strengthened in the long term
France’s performance in research for adaptation and, to a lesser extent, re
search on
adaptation, can be explained by the resources rolled out (see summary table below).
R
esources for research for adaptation (in €m)
Type of resources
Estimated amounts
in €m per year
Research projects (1/3 European Union, 1/3 National
Research Agency (ANR) and 1/3 future investments)
81
Human resources (excluding research bodies)
129
Research infrastructures (operating)
149
Total research for adaptation (low estimate)
359
Total public research expenditure across all sectors
(source: MESR, for 2020)
18,100
Proportion of research for adaptation (%)
At least 2 %
Source: Court of Accounts summary and estimates. The amounts for multi-year projects
have been standardised by the number of years concerned in order to obtain an annual
average. Data relating to the staff of research bodies cannot be produced due to
shortcomings in the information systems.
The European Union and the French National Research Agency (ANR) are the two main
funders of the French research cited by the IPCC.
The ANR funds the production of new knowledge, in line with the second National
Climate Change Adaptation Plan (PNACC). Over the period 2012-2022, funding allocated to
research for adaptation increased. The second PNACC has had no additional effect compared
with the first. Specific funding for adaptation even decreased between the two plans.
The ANR also manages the research funding earmarked for future investment
programmes (PIA), which finances more applied research. Most of the PIA funding for
adaptation was focused on the period of the first PNACC. The new Priority Research
Programmes and Equipment (PEPR) should increase the funding devoted to research for
adaptation.
17
Permanent staff are essential for carrying out project-based research, organising
facilities to produce new knowledge and solutions and, ultimately, offering high-quality
expertise. These staff are also needed to mentor young talent. However, staff numbers are
stagnating in both climate science and research into risk, vulnerability and adaptation. The
momentum observed for theses within these fields has come to a standstill since 2017-2018.
Given the growing need for expertise in the field of adaptation, the scientific pool remains
undersized.
Research for adaptation requires the involvement of major research facilities to provide
the basic data necessary. The operating cost of these facilities for adaptation is estimated at
at least €137m per year. Many facilities are facing issues related to their age, with no funding
identified for their modernisation.
Scientific support for society suffering from a lack of national coordination
The resources rolled out for research for adaptation has made it possible to build up a
pool of scientists who provide essential expertise. This is done primarily through contributions
to the IPCC, whose work informs climate policy. Over the last ten years or so, regional groups
of climate experts (GREC) have been set up to inform decision-making as closely as possible
to local issues. There are no such groups in five regions of mainland France or in the overseas
territories, with the exception of Guadeloupe. These groups have different statuses, variable
reach, little structure and are not always based on the state of the art. Their status should be
harmonised.
French research is innovating and proposing numerous solutions for adaptation. In order
to meet operational needs, the climate projections developed by the climate sciences need to
be combined with studies applied to specific sectors and regions (such as, for example, the
analysis of the consequences of the massive use of urban air conditioning in relation to
alternative ad
aptation strategies) and with the use of ‘à la carte’ expertise or targeted climate
services.
Among the technological solutions, climate services are expanding rapidly, making it
possible to provide information in a format suitable for decision-making support. Overall,
French public research plays a significant role in 39 services. Since 2018, the number of
climate services rolled out has risen sharply. Despite this progress, their sectoral influence
appears limited, except in the field of tourism. The rollout of these services therefore needs to
be accelerated. The Adaptation Resource Centre, set up as part of the second PNACC, could
play a more central role.
The second PNACC requires the ministry for ecological transition to co-lead the
‘knowledge and information’ aspect of this plan with the
ministry for higher education and
research (MESR), in conjunction with the other ministries and implementing partners. The ANR
and the ministry for ecological transition do carry out joint work, but only to track the funding
devoted to research on adaptation afterwards. The latter, which is more difficult to develop,
needs to be steered and directed in a specific way. The development by the MESR of a national
research strategy on adaptation issues, in support of the more general PNACC led by the
ministry for ecological transition, would give impetus to this field of research.
18
Recommendations
The Court makes the following recommendations:
1.
develop a national strategy for adaptation research to support the National Climate Change
Adaptation Plan (m
inistry of higher education and research
);
2. rebalance resources in favour of research on adaptation, with particular emphasis on
health, cities, overseas territories and areas where adaptation and mitigation are shared
(m
inistry of higher education and research, ministry for ecological transition and territorial
cohesion
);
3.
create a label for regional climate expert groups and include them in a network coordinated
by the ministry for ecological transition (m
inistry of higher education and research, ministry
for ecological transition and territorial cohesion, High Council on Climate
);
4.
set up research dashboards and a map of the expertise available to all stakeholders on
adaptation to climate change and other scientific issues relating to climate and biodiversity
(m
inistry of higher education and research, ministry for ecological transition and territorial
cohesion
);
5. prioritise climate services, tools that offer decision-making support based on climate
projections, according to their use and user feedback (
ministry for ecological transition and
territorial cohesion
).
19
Helping the economy adapt to climate change: the
role of financial institutions and banks
An evolving framework for action, and recent attention to adaptation issues
In 2015, the Paris Agreement recognised both the key role of the financial sector in the
transition to a more sustainable economy and the priority of adapting to climate change.
To implement this direction, the European Union (EU) and France have progressively
strengthened the obligations of financial and non-financial companies to be transparent about
their climate commitments. Environmentally friendly economic activities are defined by the
Taxonomy Regulation adopted by the EU in June 2020
1
. The European Sustainable Finance
Disclosures
Regulation (SFDR), in force since March 2021, defines the transparency
requirements for financial products. Lastly, the Corporate Sustainability Reporting
Directive
(CSRD) standardises and broadens the scope of extra-financial data to be provided by
companies in order to obtain reliable and comparable information.
This framework, which has not yet been fully consolidated, has its limits. The definition
of environmentally friendly activities in the taxonomy is very restrictive at this stage, which
could prove to be a disincentive even for the most committed stakeholders. The absence of a
link between the texts is detrimental to the framework’s overall coherence insofar as
investments in activities that are not aligned with the European taxonomy can nevertheless be
considered sustainable under the SFDR regulation. Lastly, some of its concepts, such as the
notion of ‘sustainable investment’, lack precision, leaving stakeholders with a margin for
interpretation that increases the risk of greenwashing and therefore requires clarification.
At the same time, at the request of the European Central Bank (ECB), national
supervisory bodies of markets and financial players, the risk management framework of banks
and insurance entities is evolving to include climate risk in the assessment of the risk profile of
client companies. The ECB carried out resilience tests in 2021, which showed that climate risk
was not yet sufficiently integrated and asked financial companies to take corrective measures
by the end of 2024.
The same applies to public entities such as
Banque Postale
and
Bpifrance
, which are
also subject to ECB tests. The integration of climate risk is not yet complete, even though
significant efforts have been made, such as
La Banque Postale
using climate indicators to
support decision-making and
Bpifrance
’s climate risk management teams participating in
investment committees. At this stage, these advances have not yet had an impact on lending
decisions. The
Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations
also conducted a test but based on
different assumptions and a different scope from the ECB's exercise. There is still room for
improvement to ensure that the actions and results of all public entities are comparable.
Funding still limited for the transition, and embryonic for adaptation
The Pisani Ferry - Mahfouz report of May 2023 estimated the investment needed for the
transition at an additional €66bn by 2030, or 2.3 points of GDP, without distinguishing between
the share to be borne by public and private stakeholders. Assessing the financing needs for
adaptation to climate change is still at an exploratory stage, even though this financing is often
inseparable from that for mitigation.
The new framework for action decided on following the Paris Agreements is currently
being adopted by the stakeholders involved. Not all the implementing conditions have yet been
defined, and the risks of ‘greenwashing’ remain high. The result is a profusion of voluntary
commitments and financial products that are too heterogeneous to be rigorously assessed and
1
The European taxonomy classifies economic activities that have a positive impact on the environment. Its aim is to steer
investment towards 'green' activities.
20
compared over the recent period. There are two public labels for 'sustainable' investment:
Greenfin
, created in 2015 by the ministry for ecological transition, and
Investissement
Socialement Responsable
(SRI) [Socially Responsible Investment], created in 2016 by the
ministry of the economy. Both are currently being overhauled to incorporate the climate
objectives of European regulations.
The available data shows that the (re)allocation of financial flows to the transition of the
economy is limited in scope. The outstanding €200bn for European green funds represents
just 1.3 % of the total outstanding amounts under asset management in the EU, and the
outstanding €100bn for French green and sustainable loans remains mod
est in relation to
needs.
Annual financing and investment flows in green projects by public finance entity
(€bn)
Sources and definitions:
Caisse des Dépôts
: loans granted by the
Banque des Territoires
(BDT) (excluding the
€6.8bn for energy
-efficient construction not initially provided for in the Climate Plan);
equity investments (BDT and Asset Management) provided for in the Climate Plan.
Bpifrance
: green loans, methanation, energy savings, energy environment provided for
in the Climate Plan, loans and aid for innovation included in the financing;
Bpifrance
's
own direct investments in partner funds. LBP: green loans and leases; investment in
private infrastructure debt by LBPAM. CNP Assurances: listed and unlisted green
investments (private equity, property, forestry, infrastructure, debt), excluding
subsidiaries.
Adaptation is not covered by specific provisions or earmarked funding from private
finance companies. In the public finance sector, only the
Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations
has a plan to better
direct funding towards actions to adapt to climate change: €1.2bn is
expected to be deployed between 2023 and 2027. It intends to adapt its plan as the impact of
climate risk is identified and measured.
Ultimately
,
the current situation is not conducive to the clear direction of financial flows
towards transition or adaptation projects, and it does not make it possible to connect the
actions of the various stakeholders in a convincing manner.
Levers to increase financing for the transition and adaptation
Preventing greenwashing is a key public concern: 76 % of people consider that
sustainable finance is a communication argument with no practical implications for the use of
their savings
2
. The development of controls on green financial products requires a harmonised
legal framework to be defined, the technical difficulties of measuring their environmental impact
to be resolved and the fragmentation of the stakeholders involved to be remedied.
The Government and central banks can strengthen incentives through the reputational
effect of greater transparency and act more directly on profitability indicators for adaptation
projects, as the small number of profitable green projects largely explains the limited level of
2
FIR-IFOP study on Socially Responsible Investment, 2022 (5th edition).
21
financing. Other levers can be used, such as specifying the constraints on the use of regulated
savings or adjusting the cost of capital to take account of climate risk.
Possible levers
Source: Court of Accounts
Governance and dialogue between the stakeholders involved in the transition, whether
public or private, would benefit from being better structured and taking better account of
adaptation issues. No public policy on adaptation encompasses the action of public and private
financial players, which hinders the implementation of a coordinated intervention strategy. The
National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (PNACC) for 2018 to 2022 included only three
actions targeting the financial sector, out of 58, and these were neither followed up nor
implemented.
Drawing up a national reference strategy for adaptation, as recommended by the High
Council on Climate from 2021, will give financial players a clear view of the changes to come.
On 12 July 2023, the Ecological Transition Financing Committee (CFTE) brought together
financial and industrial stakeholders, supervisory authorities and the ministry of the economy
for the first time to discuss the financing of the transition. However, there is still a great deal of
work to be done to assess the public and private financial needs in terms of adaptation, and to
break them down by sector by promoting coordination between public and private entities.
22
Recommendations
The essential aspects of the framework for action by financial institutions to finance
adaptation is defined at European level. However, there are levers available at national level,
in respect of which the Court of Accounts makes the following recommendations:
1.
make regulations more consistent and easier to understand:
a. by supporting the revision of the SFDR regulation to include minimum sustainability
requirements and align it with the taxonomy;
b. by
establishing a table of correspondence between European and national regulations,
which will need to be harmonised when the CSRD directive is transposed
(ministry of the
economy, finance and industrial and digital sovereignty
);
2. include in the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (PNACC 3) estimates of the
funding requirements for the proposed adaptation measures
(ministry for ecological
transition and territorial cohesion, ministry of the economy, finance and industrial and
digital sovereignty, general secretariat for ecological planning
).
23
Development aid and adaptation to climate change:
the contribution of the French Development Agency
(AFD)
Countries facing development challenges also have high levels of vulnerability to climate
change. Funding for developing countries has therefore become both a central development
issue and an integral part of international action to adapt to climate change, particularly since
the 2015 Paris Agreement. The main donors are increasing their funding in this area and
shifting the balance in favour of adaptation policies.
Adapting to climate change, a mobilisation issue for AFD
To implement its international commitments, France has mainly used its bilateral aid, in
particular via
the French Development Agency (AFD), which is its main operator. Since 2014,
the French government has increased its funding targets in respect of the climate. Its projects
funding adaptation have thus risen from €146m in commitments in 2012
to €2.2bn in 2022.
Change in the number of projects (right-hand scale) and AFD funding (left-hand
scale, €m) devoted to adaptation (annual financial flow)
Source: AFD
Today, France stands out for its strong relative commitment to climate issues
3
. AFD is
contributing to this by helping to structure ‘climate finance’
4
at global level through networks of
development banks, thereby helping to raise the level of international commitments in this area.
3
In 2021, it accounted for 18.1 % of climate finance under Official Development Assistance (ODA), and 8.3 % of
overall French ODA.
4
‘Climate finance’ represents all the resources mobilised for projects that have an impact on mitigating or adapting
to climate change. ‘Adaptation finance’ only includes resources that contribute to adaptation.
24
Thematic and geographic breakdown of AFD's adaptation projects in 2022
Financial intermediation means supporting the financial sector, which in turn
supports development projects.
Source: AFD
Proven achievements and limitations to be taken into account in project
management
A review of adaptation projects carried out in Morocco and Senegal shows that they have
helped to define solutions that reduce people's dependence on external financial, technical or
scientific resources. In the Atlas mountains of Morocco, this has led to restoring traditional
farming practices, while in Senegal it has involved local people in finding solutions and co-
financing the improvements needed to prevent flooding. AFD's action also helps to transform
its institutional and economic partners and strengthen their capacity for action.
However, there are certain limitations. Firstly, an adaptation project is always specific to
an area. Secondly, unlike mitigation projects, adaptation results are more difficult to measure.
Lastly, the partners' demands are still often aimed at short-term economic development rather
than sustainable adaptation to climate change, and some deep-seated vulnerabilities cannot
be fully addressed by adaptation projects.
Approaches to be developed and shared
AFD has undertaken several transformations to take adaptation issues into account in
all its activities, with the aim of making them all compatible with the Paris Agreement.
The Group is making progress in incorporating adaptation issues into its sectoral and
regional strategies, but the progress remains uneven. The tools rolled out since 2014 to
integrate the consideration of adaptation issues into project management (‘sustainable
development opinion’ and ‘climate screening’) make it possible to build robust advice for most
of the projects funded. However, a significant proportion of funding (6
% in 2022) is not yet
subject to these measures.
25
Rating grid for the ‘resilience’ aspect of the sustainable development opinion
Source: Court of Accounts based on AFD data
AFD is also developing analyses that will enable it to better identify climate-related
financial risks for its own activities. They should now be better exploited, as the agency's
exposure to climate risk is likely to increase, particularly as a result of the government's recent
decision to concentrate its action in the most vulnerable countries.
Finally, AFD should share its expertise on biodiversity and adaptation issues more
widely, not only internationally, but also with national stakeholders facing similar issues.
26
Recommendations
The Court makes three recommendations:
1.
as part of the commitment to increase the funding allocated to ‘adaptation’, increase the
funds allocated to grants funding studies prior to adaptation projects (vulnerability studies
and feasibility studies), in order to guarantee their quality
(ministry for Europe and foreign
affairs, french development agency
);
2.
systematically analyse the impact of each financing action in terms of adaptation to climate
change, using methods adapted to its specific features
(french development agency
);
3.
share experiences more widely both with partners abroad and with French stakeholders
faced with comparable adaptation issues, in particular local authorities
(french
development agency
).
27
Part Two:
Living environment and infrastructure
1. Adapting housing to climate change
2. Adapting cities to climate change
3. Adapting nuclear and hydroelectric plants to climate change
4. Adapting electricity transmission and distribution networks to climate change
5. Adapting the national rail network to climate change
6. Taking account of adaptation to climate change in the government's property policy
7. The ministry of the armed Forces and the challenges of climate change
28
Adapting housing to climate change
Adapting housing to climate change aims to limit the effects of risks linked to the
increased frequency and intensity of heat spikes and flooding, and to the acceleration of the
phenomenon of shrinkage and swelling of clay soils, which weakens foundations. Recent
standards apply to new buildings. Government and local authorities now need to address all
of these risks concerning the existing stock, for which priority is currently being given to energy
retrofit.
Energy retrofit is not primarily aimed at adapting homes to climate change
France is strongly committed to a policy of retrofitting its housing stock, with the aim of
combatting global warming by reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions
from housing. With €3.1bn in subsidies paid out in 2022, the
MaPrimeRénov'
scheme is the
main tool, ahead of the application of the reduced VAT rate of 5.5 %, the reduction in the cost
of work through energy saving certificates and the zero-rate eco-loan.
Change in financial resources allocated to energy-efficient home retrofit, by
scheme
5
In current €bn
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
EEC (1)
0.25
0.6
0.97
1.2
2.05
3.15
3.4
1.8
CIDD
/
CITE
(2)
0.87
1.7
1.7
1.95
1.13
1.08
0.31
0.10 (p)
Eco-PTZ (3)
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.04 (p)
5.5% VAT
1.08
1.18
1.07
1.15
1.24
1.31
1.76
1.91
Live better
0.52
0.42
0.5
0.53
0.76
0.6
-
-
MaPrimeRenov’
-
-
-
-
-
0.57
2.06
3.1 (4)
Local authority aid
0.02-0.1 0.02-0.1 0.02-0.1
TOTAL
2.82
3.98
4.3
4.88
5.22
6.74
7.56
6.95
Notes: (1) Amounts estimated on the basis of the volumes of EEC (energy efficiency certificates) issued
each year and the exchange prices on the secondary market, for the residential and tertiary sectors only,
excluding EEC validated for financing programmes, in particular support programmes. (2) The data taken
into account is that of the budgetary impact, i.e., in principle, that following the completion of the works.
(3) Year of budgetary impact. (4)
MaPrimeRenov'
aid estimated at €2.8bn for 2023. (p) provisional data.
Sources:
DGFiP
,
DHUP
,
Anah
(key figures for 2017 to 2022), EEC register (Emmy), budget documents,
survey of local authorities, Court calculations and estimates
MaPrimeRénov'
has met its quantitative targets, which were increased to 700,000 homes
a year in 2021, for simple work targeting mainly low-income and very low-income owners of
detached houses.
In line with its objective of mitigating climate change, this scheme only partially addresses
the risk of heat spikes, which, until 2023, was not taken into account except in the French
overseas territories. Ventilation and insulation works, which help improve comfort during the
summer months, account for only a quarter of
MaPrimeRénov'
applications, with the remaining
three quarters involving changes to heating systems. Comprehensive retrofits, which make a
greater contribution to adapting homes than isolated works, account for only 3 % of the surface
areas renovated.
A number of changes have been announced: the government wants to increase the
number of comprehensive retrofits to 200,000 in 2024, i.e. a threefold increase compared with
2022, and
MaPrimeRénov'
could include work to help improve comfort during the summer
5
Court of Accounts,
La rénovation énergétique des bâtiments (Energy retrofit of buildings
), observations to the
Prime Minister on 28 July 2022; data updated in 2023 for 2022.
29
months from 2024. The question of whether flood risk prevention should be included in the
scheme remains unresolved.
However, the frequency and intensity of heat spikes, flooding, and the shrinkage and
swelling of clay soils are set to increase, affecting a growing proportion of the country. 80 % of
the population lives in an area that will be exposed, on average, to more than 16 unusually hot
days over the next 30 years
6
. The elderly, children and people in precarious situations will be
particularly vulnerable. If homes are not adapted, air conditioning could be used on a massive
scale. However, this solution presents all the risks of maladaptation: higher energy bills,
increased greenhouse gas emissions and worsening effects of urban heat islands.
Frequency of unusually hot days and nights for the periods 1976-2005 and 2021-
2050
Note: grid squares with an average altitude of over 1,000 metres are not
considered.
Source: Insee, no. 1918, August 2022, Météo France data, Drias 2020
Shrinkage and swelling of clay soils, which can cause major structural damage, now
affects the whole of mainland France, with more than half of all detached houses located in
areas at moderate or high risk. The increased risk of flooding particularly affects the western
seaboard of mainland France. Recent insurance studies predict a significant increase in losses
associated with these two risks over the next thirty years.
Adapting housing requires a comprehensive approach to the existing stock,
involving government and local authorities
New regulations cover the adaptation of new homes at the design and construction
stage. The RE 2020 environmental regulation, which has applied to new housing stock since
2022, includes improving comfort during the summer months by reinforcing the requirement
expressed in hours of perceived thermal discomfort per year. Preventing the risk of clay soil
shrinkage and swelling is covered by rules that have applied to builders since 2020. Lastly,
flood risk must be taken into account in town planning documents, which lay down
requirements for buildings located in areas at risk of rapid flooding. Recent examples of
development projects incorporating the issue of adapting housing also provide information on
existing solutions and their consequences, particularly economic.
In the absence of a specific policy, the adaptation of existing housing stock to climate
change receives irregular budgetary appropriations. Besides
MaPrimeRénov” subsidy for
insulation and ventilation work (€1.3bn over the period 2020
-2022), the fund for preventing
major natural risks was provided with €205m in 2023. However, with €205m available in 2023,
this fund is mainly dedicated to the State-region planning contracts and, in the case of housing,
to the purchase of properties at immediate risk with a view to their demolition.
The prospective cost of adapting existing homes is not currently quantifiable, due to a
lack of technical data and defined objectives. The overall cost of improving comfort during the
summer months through the
MaPrimeRénov'
scheme is unknown, in the absence of precise
6
Insee, no. 1918, August 2022,
Météo France
data, Drias 2020.
30
knowledge of the need and the parameters selected. Furthermore, the assessment of the
funding needed to prevent flooding or the shrinkage and swelling of clay soils is hampered by
a lack of technical knowledge, in a context where preventive work could prove more costly
than post-disaster intervention. For none of these risks is the general adaptation of all housing
to climate change the only or even the most appropriate solution. The range of possible
measures extends from low-cost awareness-raising campaigns to change habits in terms of
summer comfort, to the radical transformation of the housing stock through new urban planning
policies.
Investment in research needs to be stepped up to identify less costly solutions to prevent
damage and develop ‘
solutions with multiple benefits
’, which combine the objectives of current
retrofit work. Data quality must be improved, and the data shared with stakeholders, particularly
local stakeholders, so that they can back up their decisions and adapt solutions to the
geographic realities of their areas.
Local authorities have a key role to play through their town planning policies. Adapting
housing involves both retrofitting the building and improving the surrounding environment, such
as creating cool areas for summer comfort. This requirement will be taken into account all the
more quickly if the principles and techniques of adaptation are integrated into the construction,
major retrofit and urban renewal operations also carried out by local authorities. To that end,
national programmes such as the ‘new national urban renewal programme’ or ‘
Action Coeur
de Ville
’ could be put to b
etter use.
31
Recommendations
The Court makes the following recommendations:
4.
confirm the inclusion of solar protection processes in the scope of work eligible for support
schemes for the energy retrofit of housing
(ministry for ecological transition and territorial
cohesion, ministry for the economy, finance and industrial and digital sovereignty
);
5. support and accelerate research and development projects and trials relating to the
prevention of flood risk and the risk of shrinkage and swelling of clay soils
(ministry for
ecological transition and territorial cohesion
);
6.
regularly raise public awareness of the risks to housing posed by heat spikes, flooding and
the phenomenon of shrinkage and swelling of clay soils
(ministry for ecological transition
and territorial cohesion, Cohesion, Anah, Ademe
).
32
Adapting cities to climate change
Climate change is having a major impact on the living conditions of urban populations.
In particular, it is leading to an increase in maximum summer temperatures and more frequent
heatwaves. Due to their geographic location and the characteristics of their development,
some cities are more prone to these changes than others. Paris, which saw a record heatwave
of 42.6° C on 25 July 2019, is the European capital most at risk in the event of a heatwave.
Rising temperatures are not the only consequence of climate change. It is also causing
new difficulties in the supply of drinking water and an increased risk of flooding. However, this
chapter focuses mainly on the issue of adapting cities to rising temperatures. This
phenomenon is the part of climate change that is most visible to the population, and as such
plays a key role in the adaptation strategies that are being put in place, particularly through
revegetation.
Cities are obliged to adopt an adaptation strategy as part of their local climate-air-energy
plans (PCAET), and to take this into account when drawing up their urban planning and
development documents. The Court and seven
Regional and Territorial Chambers of Accounts
reviewed the action taken to implement these framework documents. Their review was based
on audits of the central administrations of the relevant ministries and 19 cities and groups of
municipalities with more than 50,000 inhabitants.
Adaptation strategies that only partially meet the challenges of climate change
The vulnerability studies on which risk assessments are based are generally inadequate.
In particular, exposure to the urban heat island phenomenon has not yet been precisely
identified. The guidelines adopted to deal with these issues do not set out any trajectories
detailing the various stages required for their implementation and the interactions between the
measures they provide for. These trajectories, recommended by the European Commission,
would help to facilitate their assessment. Furthermore, despite the fact that they have been
mandatory for the last ten years or so, urban inter-municipalities have only belatedly adopted
adaptation strategies, and their rollout has not yet been completed throughout the country.
Structure of urban heat islands
Source: Cerema
There is considerable room for improvement in the way that local plans are coordinated
with other planning documents relating to adaptation to climate change. Although they make a
major contribution to the implementation of the national plan to adapt to climate change, they
are not sufficiently taken into account in the monitoring of its implementation. Their relationship
with urban planning and development documents is also problematic. Work on simplifying the
relationship between these documents is incomplete and should be continued.
33
The continued limited impact on organisations and an incomplete evaluation of
the costs
The political and administrative organisation of urban authorities is evolving to take
account of climate change and apply the adaptation strategies adopted. The participation of
municipalities in their preparation is necessary in view of the powers they exercise, and some
cities are voluntarily adopting ‘climate’ plans to supplem
ent them. Failing a rationalisation of
local powers, the involvement of municipalities in local planning for adaptation to climate
change should be better supervised and generalised. The government's decentralised
services and its implementing partners support these initiatives within the framework of the
missions assigned to them. However, the increasing number of contracting processes in
parallel with the rollout of local climate-air-energy plans does not facilitate the coordination of
stakeholders, which if improved would help to strengthen the local cohesion of public action as
a whole.
The precise identification of the cost of adaptation is hampered by the lack of evaluation
by local authorities of the costs associated with adaptation strategies. However, the available
data shows that the amount of expenditure incurred to date remains limited. In addition, the
budgetary resources available to support the necessary investments, in particular through the
water agencies and the Green Fund, have been insufficiently used up to 2022. Approaches to
preparing local ‘green budgets’ are still experimental and do not make it possible to identify the
costs of adaptation. The financial issues associated with adapting to climate change also relate
to preventing expenditure whose effects are poorly anticipated and would contribute to
increasing vulnerability to climate change. To that end, tools such as preliminary climate impact
analysis grids are available to identify the risk of ‘maladaptation’, which needs to be prev
ented
by taking into account future climate trends and the availability of water resources now and in
the future.
Revegetation, an emerging solution that needs to be part of a wider trajectory
To limit the effects of heatwaves, urban authorities are adopting greening measures to
take advantage of evapotranspiration and the shade created by trees. A review of these
measures provides an illustration of the more general findings on adaptation planning.
These ‘no
-
regrets’ measures are favoured by urban authorit
ies. They may be effective
in the long term, but they do not address all the issues associated with heatwaves. They should
also be combined with more effective short-term measures.
Effective implementation of greening measures requires the coordination of a large
number of stakeholders, including municipalities, who have different objectives. Consideration
also needs to be given to the technical and regulatory constraints inherent in the complexity of
a dense urban environment. Furthermore, the effectiveness of revegetation to cool cities
depends on changes in services and practices in the management of green spaces and nature.
These measures are part of a legal framework that is still under development, and their cost is
limited. By way of illustration, a 10 % increase in the amount of tree cover in towns and cities
by 2050 would represent an investment effort of €360m per year between 2025 and 2035.
Such an objective seems sustainable given current spending by municipal groupings in this
area and the Green Fund allocation, subject to the joint use of private land.
34
The benefits provided by trees in the city
Source: Cerema, City of Metz Métropole as part of the Ecosystem
Services provided by Trees, Modulated according to Essence
(SESAME) project
35
Recommendations
The Court makes the following recommendations:
1.
streamline the planning documents addressing adaptation to climate change, in particular
by improving the link between the national climate change adaptation plan and the
adaptation section of local climate-air-energy plans
(ministry for ecological transition and
territorial cohesion
);
2.
involve municipalities in local planning for adaptation to climate change, by providing for
the development of joint strategies at the intermunicipal level
(ministry for ecological
transition and territorial cohesion
);
3. effectively implement the obligation for financial programming and monitoring the
implementation of expenditure for adaptation to climate change
(public agencies for
intermunicipal cooperation subject to the obligation to adopt a PCAET
);
4.
include in the common set of local adaptation strategies a plan providing for measures to
protect the natural heritage and targets for increasing the surface area of green spaces
and tree cover
(ministry for ecological transition and territorial cohesion
).
36
Adapting nuclear and hydroelectric plants to
climate change
In France, nuclear and hydroelectric plants accounted for up to 89 % of total electricity
production from 2014 to 2022
7
. The question of how to adapt them to climate change is
therefore a crucial one.
Climate change puts nuclear and hydroelectric power plants at greater risk
Operators rely on climate modelling from the IPCC or
Météo France
to measure the
impact of climate change, particularly on water resources, and to prepare for changes.
Nuclear and hydroelectric power plants are dependent for their operation and safety on
water resources, the availability of which is being affected by global warming.
Water consumption by nuclear power plants is the third largest volume of water
consumed in France, after agriculture and drinking water, accounting for 12 % of total
consumption. Nuclear power plants are subject to site-specific environmental standards for
water abstraction and discharge, designed to limit the impact on the aquatic environment
downstream and allow water resources to be shared for other uses. These standards,
combined with increasingly frequent heatwaves and droughts, can reduce the availability and
production of the plant, particularly for heat-sensitive sites by rivers.
Freshwater abstraction and consumption in mainland France by use and river
basin, in millions of m3 average 2012-2018
france-ressource-et-utilisation-synthese-des-connaissances-en-2021
Note: in March 2023, the General Commission for Sustainable Development
(CGDD/SDES) updated the data on water consumption with the following
explanation: "The dataset on estimated freshwater consumption was revised
downwards in March 2023 following the availability of detailed water
consumption data per nuclear power station. These estimates for consumption
by the power stations, transmitted by EDF, showed that the coefficients
previously used to estimate power station consumption led to an overestimate
of that consumption. This revision modifies the total consumption value and the
breakdown of uses accordingly." This graph therefore replaces the one that
appeared in the Court's report submitted to the Senate in February 2023.
7
Source: RTE,
Electricity generation in France - Access to RTE data
(rte-france.com). Between 2014 and 2022, hydroelectric
generation contributed between 10% and 13 % of total annual electricity production, with nuclear generation accounting for 62 %
to 77 %.
37
Hydroelectric activity is also subject to numerous constraints that affect the operation
and production of the plant: environmental provisions, controlled flows, low-water
replenishment in order to protect the many other uses of water in various sectors of activity. In
the case of cross-border rivers, minimum flows at border crossings can restrict the operation
of power stations and hydroelectric facilities and affect electricity production. These constraints
are exacerbated by climate change.
The impact of heatwaves on electricity generation is limited in the short and medium term,
but is set to increase
Annual production losses resulting from climatic changes, particularly heatwaves, remain
limited for the nuclear power plants. Until now, with the exception of 2003, they have always
been less than 1 % of annual production. However, they are concentrated over a few sites and
over short periods, usually during the summer, and can therefore be critical from time to time,
increasing the risk of pressure on the network.
Production losses (MWh) per year attributed
to high temperatures (heatwaves) and low flows (low water)
Source: EDF
Average hydroelectric generating capacity has so far remained fairly stable over the short
and medium term. In addition to significant annual variations in production, EDF takes into
account multi-year averages over periods of 10 to 20 years to estimate
the average production
capacity of its facilities: climate change is estimated to have reduced it by an average of 1 TWh
between 2012 and 2022. EDF expects this reduction to continue at the same rate over the next
twenty years.
Change in hydroelectric generation since 1995
Source: RTE, 2022 electrical power budget
Safety guidelines and standards incorporate adaptation to climate change
The initial designs of the current nuclear power plants and hydroelectric facilities predate
the emergence of the concept of climate change. However, the large margins used for their
design and resistance to extreme events have made it possible to incorporate climate change.
38
As far as nuclear power plants are concerned, climatic hazards and climate change have
been recognised as key safety factors and incorporated into the requirements imposed by the
safety authority.
By determining the respective responsibilities of owners, operators and licensees, the
Water Act of 30 December 2006 was the starting point for harmonised and strengthened safety
standards and requirements for hydroelectric facilities. These rules take into account
assumptions that increase the effects of phenomena, in particular to withstand floods, with
safety coefficients for the sizing of structures and their equipment.
Operators have taken climate change into account, but still need to step up
their adaptation action
The organisation of the adaptation process is gradually being rolled out, but the cost of
adaptation is still insufficiently measured
For several years now, EDF has been stepping up its climate research and, as of 2014,
set up a climate department recognised by the scientific community. The Group's main entities,
in particular those responsible for nuclear and hydroelectric generation, have adopted climate
change adaptation plans. The management of both nuclear and hydroelectric power plants is
coordinated and optimised.
Identifying the investment and operating expenditure specifically attributed to measures
to adapt to climate change remains difficult for both
Compagnie Nationale du Rhône
(CNR)
and EDF. For nuclear power plants, the implementation of the adaptation plan in 2021 has
made it possible to assess certain expenditure. The estimated cost in terms of investment is
€1bn for the period 2006
-
2021 and around €600m for the next fifteen years. However, these
estimates need to be supplemented and refined.
The intensification of climatic constraints means that both government and operators need a
better understanding of water constraints
In particular, it is necessary to know how river flows will change in a few years' time,
something that current climate forecasts can only predict in the long term. For nuclear power
plants, it is also a question of consolidating and updating the scientific bases justifying the
regulatory limits on thermal discharges, setting the values of which will be all the more sensitive
as the number of hot spells increases.
EDF will also have to develop research into and the implementation of water-efficient
cooling systems to limit the consumption of nuclear power plants and biocidal treatment
systems that reduce the amount of chemical reagents discharged into the natural environment.
Adaptation to climate change is a determining factor for nuclear power development projects
and their location, and may justify certain hydroelectric development projects
The new reactors, which will operate until 2100 or even beyond, will be confronted with
climatic hazards on a different scale to those of the next twenty to thirty years. These
developments justify the operator exploring, from the design stage onwards, new ways of
ensuring the safety of infrastructures and their operation while optimising production in terms
of water management, and planning the location of new reactors according to, among other
criteria, climate-related constraints.
Climate issues are one of the factors determining the installation of new EPR. EDF has
assessed the possibility of installing the first three pairs of EPR2 reactors on existing nuclear
sites. The choice of location for the planned four additional reactor pairs will have to be carefully
considered during the pre-feasibility studies.
The flexibility of hydroelectric generation is an asset that encourages the search for ways
to develop it. EDF's aim is to improve the performance of hydroelectricity through preventive
maintenance and optimising its facilities. Projects to raise dams and develop pumped-storage
39
power stations are also envisaged. However, they are now at a standstill, in particular because
of the difficulties encountered in extending the duration of the concessions concerned by these
investments.
40
Recommendations
As a result of its recent work, the Court has already had occasion to make four
recommendations
8
. The elements presented above lead it to add four more:
1.
improve the reliability of measurements of water abstraction and consumption by nuclear
power plants
(ministry of the economy, finance and industrial and digital sovereignty,
ministry for ecological transition and territorial cohesion, Nuclear Safety Authority, EDF,
2024
);
2.
identify and calculate the costs of adapting nuclear and hydroelectric generation to climate
change, both in terms of operation and investment
(EDF, CNR, 2024
);
3.
measure and publish the impact of water stress on nuclear power plants located by rivers
or estuaries and, if necessary, adapt their storage capacities before discharging liquid
effluents
(ministry of the economy, finance and industrial and digital sovereignty, ministry
for ecological transition and territorial cohesion, Nuclear Safety Authority, EDF, 2024
);
4. formalise a common approach to adapting to climate change for new nuclear power,
integrated and broken down by site
(ministry of the economy, finance and industrial and
digital sovereignty, Nuclear Safety Authority, Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear
Safety, EDF, 2024
).
8
In observations dated 2 December 2022 on the renewal of hydroelectric concessions, and in its March 2023 communication to
the Senate Finance Committee on adapting nuclear reactors to climate change.
41
Adapting electricity transmission and distribution
networks to climate change
Electricity transmission and distribution are two of the four main activities of the electricity
industry, alongside upstream generation and downstream sales to end consumers.
Simplified presentation of the electricity system
Source: Court of Accounts
The electricity transmission network comprises almost 106,000 km of extra-high-voltage
(225 and 400 kV) and high-voltage (63 kV, 90 kV and 150 kV) lines used to transmit electricity
over long distances. The distribution network is much more extensive: over 1.4 million
kilometres. It is made up of medium-voltage (10 to 30 kV) and low-voltage (230 or 400 volts)
lines.
Réseau de transport d'électricité
(RTE) is the sole operator of the transmission network,
while there are 114 distribution network operators. There are six operators in France serving
more than 100,000 customers, of which Enedis is the main one, serving 95 % of the country.
Increased risks and identified vulnerabilities
Climate change is exposing the electricity grid to greater risks, which vary depending on the
nature of the structures involved
The electricity grid, which is made up of a large number of lines spread throughout the
country, is simultaneously exposed to various climatic hazards and highly resilient.
Nevertheless, climate change is leading to changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme
events.
The electricity grid is traditionally exposed to storms and strong winds, which cause
pylons to fall, either directly or as a result of falling trees. An excess of ice and sticking snow
can also weigh down lines to the point of breaking them.
42
Exposure of various electricity network facilities to climatic risks
Source: Carbone 4
The climate models do not show any significant foreseeable changes in storms in
France. With regard to frost and sticking snow, they predict a reduction in the number of days
of exposure to this type of extreme event. On the other hand, episodes of extreme heat and
flooding, which are more frequent in the context of climate change, are liable to affect the
electricity grid. The former can damage cables, including underground cables, but above all
reduce electricity transmission capacity. Flooding, particularly as a result of torrential rain, can
damage underground substations and lead to power cuts extending beyond the flooded areas.
The storms of 1999 revealed the vulnerability of the grid and led to the first adaptation
measures
The storms of 1999 revealed not only structural faults in the electricity grid, but also the
limits of operators' capability to restore power. The development of monitoring tools, such as
communicating sensors, has enabled operators to gain a better understanding of their
networks and identify their vulnerability to climatic hazards.
The network operators then took the first adaptation steps, which focused on resilience
in the face of storms and strong winds. RTE has set up a safety programme to reinforce the
foundations of pylons and prevent cascading falls. Distribution network operators have
concentrated their efforts on the overhead network and the eradication of technologies
identified as the cause of most faults, such as bare wires.
Adaptation measures have gradually been extended to other risks. For example, the
heatwave in 2003 highlighted the failure of certain underground cables, leading operators to
implement programmes to replace entire sections.
Adaptation measures to be strengthened
Adaptation plans have been put in place in response to climatic events
The Enedis
‘climate hazards’ plan, implemented from 2006 onwards, focuses in
particular on strengthening the resilience of the overhead medium-voltage network. RTE, for
its part, initially focused its efforts on reinforcing structures to cope with the risks associated
with storms, before a recent programme (2019) focused on the increased frequency of
heatwaves and preventing flood risk.
Installing lines underground was the main action taken by network operators to improve
infrastructure resilience. It is substantially more expensive in terms of investment. In the
network development plan (SDDR) published in 2019, RTE estimated that 40 % of the
additional cost would be incurred by systematically undergrounding new 63 to 225 kV lines,
43
i.e. between €750m and €1.5bn, depending on the scenario, between 2021 and 2035. Enedis,
for its part, estimates that completely unde
rgrounding its networks would cost €170bn in
investment, 60 % of which would be for the low-voltage network.
Distribution network operators have gradually phased out the most accident-prone
technologies, such as lines with bare copper conductors, known as
‘bare wires’, or the
insulation system used for certain underground cables, in particular those insulated with
impregnated paper, which were laid in urban areas until the late 1970s. Similarly, following the
flooding of the Seine in 2016, RTE and Enedis jointly drew up a map of electricity networks in
flood-prone areas of the
Île-de-France region
.
These plans must be accompanied by greater coordination between the stakeholders
involved and a formalisation of government’s objectives with regard to operators
The growing interdependence of networks (electricity, gas, transport, water,
telecommunications, etc.) makes it essential to coordinate the various operators. In the case
of the electricity transmission network, this coordination also comes under European level. As
far as the distribution network is concerned, the challenges of adaptation are essentially
national, if not local. Cooperation between the various stakeholders and Enedis' role as a
facilitator are essential if climate scenarios are to be applied at local level and a shared vision
of network infrastructure defined for the medium and long term.
Government must play a more active role in this context, particularly through the public
service contracts signed with operators. The contract signed with RTE currently focuses on
the issues of the energy transition and makes too little mention of climate adaptation issues.
The situation with Enedis is more unsatisfactory, since despite the Court's repeated
recommendations, no public service contract has yet been signed, even though this is a legal
obligation.
The financial consequences of measures to adapt to climate change need to be better
identified and incorporated into network operators' investment programmes
Expenditure on measures to adapt to climate change is difficult for network operators to
identify. Most of this expenditure serves several purposes, making it difficult to allocate.
According to the information available, the cost of future adaptation expenditure is currently
estimated at arou
nd €1.5bn for RTE (between 2020 and 2050) and €15.5bn for Enedis
(between now and 2040). Operators will have to work harder to identify and more accurately
calculate all of this expenditure, both operating and investment.
Network operators are anticipating a sharp increase in their investment, particularly due
to the development of renewable energies, which is transforming the traditional architecture of
networks and leading to significant connection costs. In addition, there is the cost of renewing
equipment as a result of ageing networks. Network operators must take advantage of these
future investments to increase their resilience and incorporate climate issues.
The timeframes used by the two main network operators in their prospective studies do
not go beyond 2050.
Enedis' investment plans are even limited to 2040. However, electricity grid equipment
has an average lifespan of 50 years, with some structures having a lifespan of more than 70
years. Adaptation measures will therefore need to be supplemented with longer-term analyses
that take into account the impact of the future climate.
44
Recommendations
In the light of these findings, the Court makes the following recommendations:
1. amend the Order of 17 May 2001 determining the technical conditions to be met by
electricity distributors in order to take account of the changing risks associated with climate
change
(ministry of the economy, finance and industrial and digital sovereignty
);
2. include climate change adaptation objectives in the public service contracts signed
between government and network operators (already in place for RTE, to be drawn up for
Enedis)
(ministry of the economy, finance and industrial and digital sovereignty, RTE and
Enedis, 2024
);
3.
immediately publish the implementing decree provided for in Article L.322-11 of the French
Energy Code to enable the distribution network operators concerned to draw up network
development plans (PDR) in consultation with stakeholders
(ministry of the economy,
finance and industrial and digital sovereignty
);
4. identify and calculate the costs of adapting electricity transmission and distribution
networks to climate change, in terms of operation and investment
(RTE, Enedis 2024
).
45
Adapting the national rail network to climate
change
The national rail network, made up of some 27,000 km of lines and 3,000 passenger
stations, is structurally vulnerable to severe weather events. The trends emerging from climate
forecasting models point to an increase in the frequency and intensity of these events. Under
these conditions, defining a relevant adaptation strategy requires a better understanding of the
operational and financial consequences of climate change. It also requires the implementation
of a structured approach, overseen by government.
The operational and financial consequences are still poorly understood
Railway infrastructure is made up of many components, from tracks to catenaries,
earthworks, engineering structures and passenger stations. These different elements each
present specific vulnerabilities to extreme weather events.
With the exception of the high-speed lines, the network has age-related weaknesses
such as less demanding building standards than today, more lines particularly exposed to the
risk of flooding and outdated technology. In addition, the dilapidated state of some of its
components, such as the tracks and the copper telecommunications network, increases their
vulnerability to weather-related hazards.
The two SNCF entities concerned,
SNCF Réseau
and
SNCF Gares et connexions
, have
undertaken studies to assess changes in these vulnerabilities with regard to both climate
change scenarios set out in the IPCC's 5th report for the timeframes 2030-2050 and 2080-
2100
9
. They show an increase in the proportion of the network exposed to high levels of risk,
in particular that linked to extreme heat, shrink-swell of clay soils and flooding. Both companies
now need to develop tools that will enable them to base their maintenance and investment
decisions on predictive analyses that take climate change effects into account.
9
RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios (see introductory chapter).
46
Network’s physical vulnerability to climatic hazards encountered
Source: Court of Accounts, based on
SNCF Réseau
data
In operational and financial terms, climate change will lead to a deterioration in network
reliability, loss of revenue and higher operating and investment costs. These consequences
are still poorly understood, even though analysing them is a prerequisite for defining an
adaptation strategy.
Weather-related hazards are already causing thousands of incidents, ranging from
delays of just a few minutes to track closures for repairs. In 2022, they accounted for 19 % of
the minutes of delay attributable to
SNCF Réseau
. These disruptions could be multiplied by at
least 2.2 or even 2.4 by 2050 and by 8 or even 11 by 2100 according to both scenarios
mentioned above.
Only exceptional events give rise to specific monitoring of the additional costs incurred.
Between 2009 and 2021, they amounted to €38m for
SNCF Réseau
. Added to this is the loss
of revenue for transport operators and the valuation of time lost by end users.
The need for a structured strategic approach to adaptation, overseen by
government
In the absence of general directives from Government, the day-to-day management of
the rail network in the face of weather-related hazards relies solely on the initiative of network
operators. It is guided primarily by safety requirements, but also by the need to protect the
infrastructure and rolling stock. It is based on constant technical adjustments made on the
basis of feedback. This ongoing adaptation will improve the resilience of the network, but it
does not take into account the anticipated effects of climate change.
47
The same applies to decisions to modernise or renew infrastructure components.
Replacing the most obsolete elements will certainly help to make the system more resilient to
climatic hazards, but the volume of work involved needs to be measured against climate
change forecasts. However, the standards applicable to network components, whether internal
to the operators or derived from European standards, do not take account of the future climate.
Even when they can be considered robust, their resilience has not been examined to date. Nor
is there any analysis framework defined by the public authorities specifying the degree of
resilience to climate change that new infrastructure projects should achieve. This assessment
therefore remains at the discretion of the project owner.
The development of a target vision for adapting the rail network to climate change,
shared by the various stakeholders (authorities organising transport, infrastructure operators,
users), would appear to be necessary in order to set the adaptation process in motion and
focus investment on priority actions. In particular, the expected level of network availability
needs to be determined on the basis of the intensity and frequency of the hazards encountered,
in line with the modal shift targets set by the public authorities.
The performance of the network could thus be assessed by means of an indicator
differentiated according to the degree of severity of the meteorological phenomena, like the
one developed by Network Rail
in the United Kingdom.
Performance level of the rail network in the United Kingdom according to the
intensity of the climatic hazards encountered
Source: Network Rail
Note: the green curve corresponds to normal weather conditions, the orange
curve to unfavourable weather conditions and the blue curve to extreme
conditions.
On an operational level, several structural obstacles to the rollout of an adaptation policy
can be identified within
SNCF Réseau
and
SNCF Gares et Connexions
. These include their
dependence on the expertise of consultancy firms to carry out vulnerability studies, the limited
awareness among operational players of climate change issues and, above all, the lack of a
specific organisation responsible for formalising the adaptation strategy and translating it into
action plans.
These action plans would be incorporated into the performance contracts signed by
these operators with government and subject to regular review, which should provide an
opportunity to look more closely at the risks that are currently poorly understood at the level of
a single operator, such as those arising from interdependencies between networks. Linking
the infrastructure adaptation plans to the performance contracts would also ensure that the
cost of adaptation investment is taken into account in the allocated financial envelopes.
In addition, network operators need to identify adaptation measures that can be rapidly
incorporated into current renewal programmes. For example, the question of raising the rail
48
destressing temperature, which is set at 25° C as standard throughout the rail network, could
be asked during all track renewal operations in the regions most exposed to extreme heat.
49
Recommendations
The Court therefore makes the following recommendations:
1.
identify and calculate the costs of adapting the rail network and stations to climate change,
in terms of operation and investment
(
SNCF Réseau
,
SNCF Gares et connexions
, 2026
);
2.
incorporate the latest climate change forecasts into national standards and guidelines for
the design of rail network components and stations and regularly adjust design margins
accordingly
(
SNCF Réseau
,
SNCF Gares et connexions
, ministry for ecological transition
and territorial cohesion, 2024
);
3.
for transport infrastructure development projects, supplement the reference framework for
socio-economic analyses with an analysis of resilience to climate change
(, ministry for
ecological transition and territorial cohesion, 2025
);
4.
define a climate change adaptation plan included in the targets and performance contract,
based on an impact study, budgeting and organised monitoring
(
SNCF Réseau
,
SNCF
Gares et connexions
, ministry for ecological transition and territorial cohesion, 2025
).
50
Taking into account adaptation to climate change in
the government's property policy
Adapting the State’s property portfolio to climate change is a critical issue
for the
government, given its size and the inadequate knowledge of its characteristics. The fact is that,
until now, this issue has not been taken into account in governmental investments, whether
made or planned.
The State’s extensive property portfolio is largely ill
-adapted to climate risks
The State owns a very extensive property portfolio, comprising 192,000 buildings with a
total surface area of 94.4 million m². It is highly diversified including office space, housing,
universities, museums, prisons, law courts, etc.
The State’s property portfolio by function
Type
of building
Number
of buildings
Surface area
(m
2
)
Office space
20,521
22,862,303
Education or sports buildings
10,290
20,139,079
Technical buildings
45,536
19,335,774
Housing
48,660
18,157,011
Health and social care
buildings
7,269
9,195,318
Cultural buildings
1,462
3,279,356
Agricultural or livestock
buildings
1,924
629,974
Engineering structures, road
networks
15,459
470,699
Places of worship
320
375,823
Monuments and memorials
1,040
360,817
Other
40,197
291,859
Total
192,278
95,098,014
Source: Infocentre France Domaine
–
Property inventory
–
Retrieved on 28/04/2023
These premises and their users are exposed to a wide range of climatic risks, including
extreme temperatures, storms, flooding, rising sea levels and geological disturbances. They
differ according to their location, with a high prevalence in the southern and overseas areas,
accounting for almost a third of premises.
The state of maintenance of these buildings and the characteristics of each of them are
still insufficiently documented. The specific tools implemented by the G
overnment’s Property
Department need to be supplemented and enhanced with vulnerability data associated with
the climatic risks incurred. This information is indispensable if adaptation to climate change is
to be taken into account in the ministries multi-year property strategy plans (SPSI) and regional
property master plans (SDIR).
51
The State's property portfolio by ministry
Source: Infocentre France Domaine
–
Property inventory
–
Retrieved on 28/04/2023
Adapting to climate change, a blind spot in the government’s property policy
Until now, the Government's property policies and associated funding (notably the
“
major
investment plan
”
and
“
recovery plan
””
) have given priority to mitigating global warming by
reducing greenhouse gas emissions and energy costs. Taking account of the construction and
public works needed to adapt to climate change consequences, remains a blind spot in the
government’s property policy
. The PNACC 3 plan currently being prepared should correct this,
in the context of the new climate scenario to be opted for by government.
The same is true of the PNACC 2 (2018-2022), which included only two measures, out
of 471, contributing to adaptation. One of them concerned the implementation of the RE 2020
environmental regulation, which aims to guarantee comfort in hot weather but only applies to
new buildings, i.e. an average of 2-3 % per year of the State's total property portfolio.
The same is also true of the forecasted costs of property investment needs, estimated
by a working group of the general secretariat for ecological planning at the end of 2022 at
between €142.2bn and €146bn
from now to 2051, which do not include climate change
adaptation costs.
The urgent need to incorporate adaptation into the government’s property
strategy
Given the recurrence of extreme climatic events, it is becoming urgent to incorporate
global warming adaptation measures into the objectives for transforming the State's property
portfolio. This aspect should be included into the guidelines set out in the future French strategy
on energy and climate and its various components (the national low-carbon strategy, the
national climate change adaptation plan and the multi-year energy programme). It should also
be operationalized in national and decentralised ministerial strategies. The priorities, timetable
and financial trajectory will have to be specified.
In order to achieve this, rapid work is required to ensure that the repositories and
technical information on State buildings are complete and reliable in terms of their vulnerability
to climate change.
State buildings must also comply with the various climate change regulations, including
the 2018 European Directive on the energy performance of buildings, the so called
‘tertiary’
decree of 23 July 2019 and the RE 2020 environmental regulation, as well as the Law of 22
52
August 2021
10
, known as the ‘Climate and Resilience’ law, which requires all landlords,
including the State, to provide their tenants with decent properties that meet minimum energy
performance criteria. These regulatory obligations, which focus on mitigation, will have to be
supplemented to take specific account of adaptation to climate change, in line with the
recommendations of the international benchmarking report on climate change adaptation
policies published by the Inspectorate General for the Environment and Sustainable
Development in December 2022.
The adaptation dimension will also have to be integrated into the financial trajectories for
property investment, taking into account the budgetary sustainability of the Government's
property strategy.
Lastly, the adaptation strategy requires a partnership and participatory approach with
local authorities, which own large property portfolios, and those who utilize State buildings,
whether they are users or employees.
10
Law no. 2021-1104 of 22 August 2021 on combatting climate change and building resilience to its effects.
53
Recommendations
Following these findings, the Court makes the following recommendations:
1. incorporate the adaptation o
bjective into the government’s property policy, specifying
priorities, a timetable and a financial trajectory including the necessary additional funding
(ministry of the economy, finance and industrial and digital sovereignty, general secretariat
for ecological planning
);
2. complete the reliability of the technical reference framework for State property and
supplement this information with data on building components
(ministry of the economy,
finance and industrial and digital sovereignty
).
54
The ministry of the armed forces and the challenges
of climate change
The ministry of the armed forces holds a special position within the State in terms of its
ability to help combat global warming or adapt to it. Operational activity, which is at the heart
of the armed forces' mission, is inextricably linked to the use of a considerable fleet of land
vehicles, most of which are highly motorised. The primacy of these operational requirements
means that the armed forces benefit from exemptions, both at national level and at European
and international level, regarding their participation in the general policy to combat global
warming.
Due to its operational constraints, the ministry of the armed forces will
experience slow change in the motorisation of military equipment and a limited
reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions
The energy consumption of the ministry of the armed forces is particularly high, due to
the size of its fleet of military equipment (armoured and non-armoured land vehicles, aircraft
and ships), its building infrastructure (which accounts for a quarter of the total useful floor area
occupied by the State) and its workforce.
The mobility of the armed forces is an essential factor in their operational effectiveness.
It requires power levels that alternative motors cannot and will not be able to offer in the
medium term as a replacement for combustion engines. However, since energy autonomy is
a condition for the operational performance of the armed forces, they take care to optimise fuel
consumption right from the design stage of their equipment (vehicles, aircraft and ships).
As a result, the armed forces have not considered it necessary to take further steps to
reduce their consumption of fossil fuels, which has not decreased over the last ten years. Given
the key role played by defence in the overall energy consumption of the ministry of the armed
forces, it is likely that the decarbonisation trajectory of the defence sector will continue to lag
behind that of the civilian sector for some time to come.
55
Energy consumption by the armed forces 2012-2022 (GWh)
Source: Court of Accounts, based on data from the ministry of the
armed forces
Note: consumption billed by the Operational Energy Service (SEO).
The only notable change is that, as in the civil aviation sector, the armed forces will be
incorporating biofuel into aviation fuel, albeit to a limited extent (5 % by 2030). Since, under
the ‘single fuel’ policy, most land army vehicles run on aviation fuel, their energy consumption
will essentially follow the same decarbonisation trajectory as the aviation sector.
The ministry of the armed forces has made progress in reducing the consumption of
fossil fuels in the operation of its buildings. However, this is mainly due to the reduction in the
size of the armed forces rather than to the reduction in the nominal consumption of buildings.
Future progress can therefore only be achieved through efforts requiring more specific
measures.
56
Change in energy consumption (GWh) for the ministry's infrastructure between
2010 and 2021
Source: Court of Accounts, based on data from the ministry of
the armed forces
Identification of the necessary adaptations to climate change has barely begun
As part of its ‘Climate & Defence’ strategy, adopted in 2022, the
ministry of the armed
forces has begun work to identify the necessary adaptations to climate change, focusing on
three themes:
⚫
changes in the nature of conflict and the use of force as a result of climate change:
conflicts over access to resources, the dynamics of migratory movements, the geostrategic
impact of opening up new shipping lanes in the Arctic as a result of melting ice, etc.;
⚫
capability and innovation: the aim is to identify, by environment (land, sea, air), all the
effects and risks associated with climate change on weapon systems (in terms of use, support,
etc.);
⚫
infrastructure resilience, with the aim of proposing a plan to adapt to the effects of
climate change by 2030 (rising sea levels, storms, torrential flooding, rising temperatures,
water stress, etc.).
In addition, two specific topics are covered by other initiatives. Firstly, there is the issue
of securing the onshore facilities required by nuclear-powered ships (aircraft carriers and
submarines). Adaptations are underway following the Fukushima accident, which led the
ministry of the armed forces to modify its safety standards by updating the climatic data to be
taken into account. The second is the contribution of the armed forces to protecting the national
territory and strengthening the protection of the overseas territories, which involves, in
particular, the continuous adaptation of their response missions in the event of natural, health
or climatic disasters, but also improving their links with the internal security forces, which
should be encouraged by setting up regional reserves.
The slow pace of the decarbonisation of the armed forces' operational activities is liable
to have two consequences. Firstly, the retention of combustion engines will lead to a
divergence between the technologies used for defence and those used in the civilian sector.
This is expected to result in an increase in the cost of equipment, since it will more often be
specific to the armed forces. There is also a risk that this trajectory will make the armed forces
appear less than ‘virtuous’ when it comes to climate issues. This possible deterioration in their
image, on a subject to which young people are currently very sensitive, could be detrimental
to the attractiveness of the defence sector and make recruitment more difficult in all the fields
concerned. The identification of both these risks should prompt the ministry of the armed forces
to consider the adaptation measures that could be taken to counter their potentially damaging
effects.
57
Recommendations
In view of the above, the Court makes the following recommendations:
1.
quantify the contribution of each action in the ministerial energy performance strategy to
achieving the target objectives and update the forecast trajectories annually
(ministry of
the armed forces
);
2.
establish the ‘carbon footprint’ of all services of the Ministry of the Armed Forces, including
carbon sequestration, and update it as often as is required by law
(ministry of the armed
forces
);
3.
advance the work on optimising energy consumption for operational mobility, in particular
by making better use of available data and improving the collection of relevant data
(ministry of the armed forces
);
4.
speed up the process of identifying adaptations to climate change that the armed forces
will have to implement
(ministry of the armed forces
).
58
Part Three:
The natural environment, people and activities
1. Sustainab
le management of mainland France’s forests: adapting to climate change
2. Coastline management in times of climate change
3. Preventing climate-related natural disasters in overseas France
4. Protecting the health of vulnerable people during heatwaves
5. Adapting cereal crops to climate change
6. Mountain resorts and climate change
59
Sustainable management of mainland France’s
forests: adapting to climate change
Following uninterrupted growth in forest cover since the 19th
century, the forest has been
suffering the consequences of climate change for some years now, in particular the excess
mortality of certain species. This destruction has consequences both for the environment by
weakening the forest's role in carbon sequestration, threatening biodiversity and transforming
landscapes, and for the sector's economy. These changes are having a major impact on
society as a whole, with tens of thousands of hectares destroyed by fire or dieback.
A snapshot of mainland France’s forests
Source: Court of Accounts, based on data from the National Forest Inventory
(IFN), IGN 2022
The intensification and acceleration of the effects of climate change on all
mountain ranges
The consequences of climate change on forest stands have been observed for several
years. However, all stakeholders involved have been surprised by the intensification and
acceleration of these effects over the last five years, with the succession of heatwaves and
droughts. Many forest species are increasingly unsuited to their environment, as the speed of
climate change means that they can no longer adapt naturally as they did in the past. A range
of species across the country will be affected, irreversibly transforming forest landscapes.
Moreover, the mountain ranges are increasingly vulnerable to forest fires.
Faced with this situation, those involved in forestry are confronted with uncertainties
about the measures to be implemented to adapt their forests. With resources which are still
inadequate, forestry research is struggling to overcome these uncertainties due to the lack of
effective communication of knowledge in the field.
60
Some owners, particularly in eastern mountain ranges, are also financially vulnerable.
Forest communities in particular, which account for almost 20 % of wood sales in France, saw
their forestry revenues fall sharply before recording further increases in 2021 and 2022.
However, this reflects a deterioration in the profitability of their forestry assets (large volumes
of decayed wood sold at low prices) as well as a marked reduction in their forest estate,
pointing to a significant loss of revenue in the future. These difficulties have a direct impact on
the implementation of adaptation measures, with municipalities reducing their level of
investment in forestry. Many of them are financially unable to rebuild their destroyed plots.
Recent adaptation measures face implementation difficulties
As a matter of urgency, the government reacted by announcing measures to adapt to
the situation, in terms of forest renewal and strengthening forest firefighting resources.
However, the implementation of these measures, which stem from the ministerial ‘roadmap’
(2020), the forest and wood conference (2022) and the Law of 10 July 2023 aimed at
strengthening the prevention and combatting the intensification and spread of fire risk, is
coming up against structural difficulties.
The adaptation measures financed by the recovery plan mainly concern aid for forest
renewal, the level of which (€210m for 2021
-
2022 and then €145m for 2023
-2024) remains
limited in view of the destruction caused by dieback or fire. Furthermore, these measures have
been insufficiently focused on adaptation. The future national scheme announced by
government to "
plant a billion trees in 10 years
" should therefore focus funding more strongly
on this issue.
The ‘forest renewal’ aspect of the recovery plan is hampered by the inability of forestry
contractors to meet the demand for plantations. This sector is suffering from structural
problems (attractiveness of professions, training provision, organisation of mainly individual
companies) which will need to be addressed in order to meet the requirements of massive
forest renewal. This situation is exacerbated by the reduced capacity of the National Forest
Office to carry out forestry work.
At the same time, forest firefighting resources, which mainly rely on the local action of
the departmental fire and rescue services (SDIS) and the intervention of national civil
protection resources (to the tune of €340m per year), are set to be
strengthened. In the face
of increasing risk, however, the increase in resources comes up against major organisational
limitations: availability of trained personnel (weather forecasters, civil protection flight crews),
difficulties faced by the fire and rescue services (SDIS) overwhelmed by personal rescue
missions, and industrial constraints that make the equipment renewal schedule uncertain.
Finally, the extreme fragmentation of property ownership also hinders the
implementation of these adaptation measures. For fire protection, the specific model of the
ASA de DFCI
(authorised property owner associations for defence against forest fires), present
in
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
, needs to be strengthened and developed in other regions. In the field
of forest management, groupings should be encouraged in order to enlarge the area of
sustainably managed forest. At present, there are too few links between private and public
forests in the field.
Changes in management and preventive methods, a prerequisite for successful
forest adaptation
Financial measures alone are not enough: the performance of public action to adapt
forests also requires changes in management and preventive methods.
Firstly, development and planning tools need to be reviewed: forest management
documents are no longer adapted to the changing situation of forest stands. Their
programmes, which were determined on a long-term basis, are no longer monitored and all
too rarely include adaptation issues. Operators' resources must be redeployed to include
61
regular monitoring of forest stands and their vulnerability, supported by the new tools available.
Expertise in the field and support for stakeholders are more essential than ever.
Urban planning documents do not take sufficient account of fire risk. The obligation to
devote more and more effort to the defence of dispersed hot spots partly absorbs the additional
resources deployed. The definition of ‘danger zones’, created by the Law of 10 July 2023, will
make it possible to integrate the necessary instructions and restrictions to combat forest fires,
provided that the services in charge of urban planning are sufficiently aware of them.
In addition, pressure from large game, which is increasingly strong and widespread in
certain mountain ranges, is hampering forest renewal. The measures taken to date have not
improved a situation that is, on the contrary, steadily deteriorating. The large number of deer
also has an impact on public finances, since the protection of seedlings could account for
between €225m and €
375m in subsidies under the future ten-year national forest renewal plan.
The current system for regulating large game does not guarantee the protection and
renewal of forests and cannot be left to the discretion of hunters alone. The intervention of
public agencies to organise and direct regulation operations in the most unbalanced sectors is
therefore becoming necessary.
Finally, in the context of increased risk, firefighting requires more than just relief
measures.
62
Recommendations
The Court makes the following recommendations:
1. encourage forest communities with regular forestry products to improve the financial
management of their activity and their forestry investments by encouraging the
establishment of specific budgets
(ministry of the interior and overseas territories, ministry
of the economy, finance and industrial and digital sovereignty
);
2. make it easier to group municipal forests together by supporting the creation of
intermunicipal forest management structures and using forest charters to involve private
forests
(ministry of the interior and overseas territories, ministry of agriculture and food
sovereignty
);
3. integrate the adaptation issue into forest management documents based on regular
monitoring of the condition of stands and allocate human resources to operators to support
this process in the field
(ministry of agriculture and food sovereignty, national forest office,
national centre for forest property
);
4. entrust national public agencies with managing and organising the regulation of deer
populations in areas where there is a significant imbalance
(ministry for ecological
transition and territorial cohesion, national forest office, national centre for forest property,
french biodiversity office
);
5.
in departments which are newly at risk, make up the delay in rolling out existing legal and
organisational measures to prevent and combat forest fires
(ministry of the interior and
overseas territories
).
63
Coastline management in times of climate change
The coastal fringe is exposed to natural phenomena, whether marine or continental in
origin, and is subject to human development interventions, which cause the coastline, the
boundary between land and sea, to advance or retreat. These changes are now being
accelerated by the consequences of climate change, in particular the rise in sea level and the
increase in extreme weather events.
With 10 % of the population of mainland France concentrated along the coastline, and
even two to six times more in summer, and 20% of the coastline in retreat, a national survey
was carried out into the response of the public authorities in terms of knowledge of the
phenomena and adaptation to their effects, covering both current actions and those planned
for the decades to come.
Sediment losses and inputs along the coastline
Source: Cerema
The retreat of the coastline: a phenomenon exacerbated by climate change
with consequences that are insufficiently anticipated
Coastline movement, which has been going on for a long time and is generally gradual,
is being accelerated by climate change. Its consequences, particularly when it takes the form
of erosion, threaten people, property and activities located on the seafront. The threat can be
exacerbated when erosion is combined with coastal flooding, two natural risks that interact but
whose dominant characteristics justify, to a certain extent, separate legal and financial
treatment.
Knowledge of coastal erosion is still imperfect, but it is already a cause for concern.
Improving this situation is complicated by the fact that several operators are involved in this
area, but they are not always coordinated. The identification of the assets and activities
affected by the retreat of the coastline and their economic estimates for 2050 are still very
patchy and need to be improved. The corresponding stakes are in the tens of billions of euros.
At present, risk projections are not sufficiently integrated into urban planning and
development policies. Many areas heavily affected by coastal erosion are still not covered by
a coastal risk prevention plan (PPRL), meaning that urban development can continue in areas
at risk. In addition, the PPRLs covering such areas do not take account of the foreseeable rise
64
in sea level and could therefore underestimate the risk. The ‘Climate and Resilience’ La
w of
22 August 2021 created a new mechanism to encourage the integration of this risk into local
authorities' planning policies, but it now needs to be ramped up with the full support of these
local authorities. In this respect, the list published by the decrees of 29 April 2022 and 31 July
2023 only includes 253 municipalities, whereas 298 have been identified by government as
being the most at risk.
Municipalities in mainland France most at risk from coastal erosion, not covered
by a PPRL and not on the l
ist of the ‘Climate and Resilience’ Law
Source: Court of Accounts, based on Cerema data (April 2021)
Incomplete national and local preparation and adaptation strategies
Faced with this growing phenomenon, action strategies were formalised, first at national
level from 2012, then at local level. These documents promote the reduction of vulnerability
and sustainable adaptation to the retreat of the coastline, but their implementation is
incomplete. The national strategy, which is currently being revised, cannot be evaluated. Few
regions have implemented it, with a few rare exceptions, such as
Normandy
,
Occitanie
and
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
, the latter being notable for its broad, uniform coverage of local action
plans.
The main reason for this lack of local structuring lies in the major difficulties of
governance at local level, despite the fact that a large number of stakeholders, both private
and public, are legally competent. As coastline management is not a mandatory part of the
intermunicipal ‘management of aquatic environments and flood prevention’ (GeMAPI) remit, it
is not always dealt with in a coherent manner in terms of its scale and in relation to the risk of
coastal flooding. However, the intermunicipal level is the most appropriate.
Adapting rather than combatting: still a rare choice
In addition to these difficulties, there are legal and financial obstacles to the relocation of
property at risk, as it
is the case in other countries. The ‘Climate and Resilience’ Law has
removed some of the obstacles, by facilitating future spatial reconfiguration projects in coastal
areas, but the low level of local acceptance and the cost of these projects are holding them
back. It is hardly surprising, then, that the historic method of intervention - sea defence by
means of structures - is still favoured, to the detriment of a genuine effort to adapt, despite
being encouraged through experimentation. In particular, there are five partnership
development
projects
between
government
and
local
authorities
in
Normandy
,
Nouvelle- Aquitaine
and
Occitanie
.
65
In order to reduce the current uncertainties, and in addition to stronger local support for
the tools of the ‘Climate and Resilience’ law and clear governance, it is important to create the
conditions for long-term funding to manage the retreat of the coastline.
Expenditure on this policy, which is largely co-funded and still moderate, is sustainable
today, but this will be different in the future, although it is not possible to quantify it exactly
given the monitoring tools available. The financial needs to be covered by 2100 should be
identified, particularly in terms of spatial reconfiguration, which only a few theoretical studies
have calculated
–
over 20 years, between €22m for the relocation of a neighbourhood of 30
houses a
nd €835m for the reconfiguration of a 3km seafront. The Court calls for a system of
public funding for coastline management based on solidarity across coastal areas and on each
local authority's own resources, consistent with the financial responsibility of private owners to
protect their property from the sea.
66
Recommendations
The Court makes the following recommendations:
1.
require all areas at high risk of coastline retreat to be risk assessed which is enforceable
on town planning authorisations and takes account of the foreseeable rise in sea level
attributable to climate change
(ministry for ecological transition and territorial cohesion,
municipalities and EPCIs [intermunicipal authority for cooperation between local
authorities]
);
2.
include objectives and indicators in the next national strategy for managing the coastline
so that its implementation can be monitored and evaluated
(ministry for ecological
transition and territorial cohesion
);
3. make coastline management a compulsory GeMAPI mission carried out by municipal
groupings
(ministry for ecological transition and territorial cohesion, ministry of the interior
and overseas territories
);
4.
rigorously and uniformly monitor the current costs and funding of coastline management in
order to identify future needs
(ministry for ecological transition and territorial cohesion,
ministry of the interior and overseas territories, ministry for the economy, finance and
industrial and digital sovereignty, municipalities and EPCIs
);
5. set up a system for funding public management of the coastline, establishing financial
solidarity between coastal areas and including a contribution to be made by each coastal
local authority or grouping from its own resources
(ministry for ecological transition and
territorial cohesion, ministry of the interior and overseas territories, ministry for the
economy, finance and industrial and digital sovereignty, municipalities and EPCIs
).
67
Preventing climate-related natural disasters in
overseas France
Climate change will lead to an increase in extreme weather events in the French
overseas territories, which are exposed to almost all natural hazards and have significant
geographic, economic and social vulnerabilities. How climate change is taken into account in
the prevention of natural disasters in the French overseas territories, the organisation adopted,
the resources deployed, the methods used and their limitations, are becoming crucial issues,
even if we exclude from their scope the degradation of marine environments and coral reefs
or the rise in sea level and seismic or volcanic events.
Developing and disseminating knowledge about climate change
Preventing natural disasters requires building a solid knowledge base on climate change.
Recent work by
Météo France
, in conjunction with other research organisations and
laboratories, has made it possible to refine the geographic accuracy of climate projections and
to identify in detail the amplification of natural hazards linked to climate change in different
regions.
However, the quality and accuracy of this information remains generally inferior to that
available in mainland France. To close this gap,
Météo France
plans to provide high-resolution
simulations (2.5 km) by the end of 2025 for the French West Indies, French Guiana, Réunion,
Mayotte, New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna and the most populated islands of French
Polynesia.
For this scientific knowledge to go beyond the strict circle of experts and extend to those
involved in prevention and the civil society, three difficulties need to be overcome: firstly, the
highly technical nature of the subject and the sheer volume of data available, which means
that appropriate and regularly updated information media need to be designed; secondly, the
lack of systematic analysis of vulnerabilities and risks in each territory based on hazards, which
puts the effectiveness of public authorities’ action into perspective; and thirdly, the lack, within
local authorities, of the tools and skills needed to use this knowledge and translate it into public
policies.
Promoting a new culture of risk awareness
The increase in the number of disasters linked in particular to climate change is
accentuating the need to develop a culture of risk awareness within the population, as an
essential vehicle of prevention.
The culture of risk awareness is already present in the overseas territories, with
memories of cyclonic phenomena and with the population’s knowledge of alert levels and
behaviour to adopt. It is maintained by a large number of risk reference documents, both at
departmental and local level, and by awareness-raising campaigns.
However, this traditional culture is tending to fade, especially among the younger
generations, due to the relatively low frequency of extreme weather events.
At the same time, individual behaviours are less appropriate and less supportive of
prevention efforts, particularly among the populations most at risk. This is particularly true of
relocation projects and the tightening of building standards.
It is essential to restore a culture of risk awareness, adapted to the new issues, targeting
young people in particular, and using communication methods tailored to them.
Adapting the pre-operational organisation
The many planning documents provided for in the regulations fall into two categories:
68
⚫
those aimed at operational preparedness for disaster: departmental risk analysis and
coverage plan (SDACRE), civil protection response organisation plan (ORSEC), local
emergency plans (PCS);
⚫
planning documents that focus on prevention by developing organisational responses
that can be applied over time: natural risk prevention plans (PPRN), local urban development
plans (PLU), flood risk management plans (PGRI).
The adoption and application of these plans vary from one territory to another.
Furthermore, most of these documents, which are not revised regularly enough, do not take
sufficient account of climate change as a risk amplifier. Government departments have begun
to list the latter with a view to bringing them up to date with the latest scientific data. However,
this exercise is complicated by the number of documents, their complexity and their technical
nature.
Despite population growth in the areas at risk and an increase in the intensity of
meteorological phenomena, the number of deaths due to climatic phenomena in the French
overseas territories has been falling steadily for over fifty years, while the overall level of
destruction has remained stable or even increased, demonstrating the usefulness of the
prevention strategies rolled out.
Change in the number of deaths between 1951 and 2023
Source: Court of Accounts
However, some territories are more vulnerable than others, in particular because of
shortcomings in the pre-operational measures rolled out. The national resources pre-
positioned in the various territories should be adjusted according to the effects of climate
change, the types of hazards and their occurrence.
The scenarios used in overseas exercises do not take sufficient account of the increasing
likelihood of hazards overlapping, which increases the risks of additional impact, a totally
devastating, replicating or successive phenomenon (cyclone, earthquake, tsunami, etc.) that
exceeds the disaster response capability of a given territory. Only
Météo France's
inter-
regional office for the Indian Ocean is working with Réunion's government departments to
characterise an extreme cyclonic event.
Finally, the feedback that follows the exercises focuses almost exclusively on the
collective point of view (preparation of elected representatives and public officials, response
forces). It does not take sufficient account of the individual point of view of residents (perception
of risks, memory of disasters, knowledge of preventive measures).
Ensure that consideration of climate change in the prevention of natural
disasters is one of the priorities of public policies in the French overseas
territories
There are many ways in which prevention policy can be funded. However, local
authorities in the French overseas territories struggle to effectively use the financial resources
made available to them because of the specific skills, particularly in terms of engineering,
required to design projects, which are unevenly available in the overseas territories.
69
The Barnier Fund, which in 2023 had total resourc
es of around €200m, including €42m
for the overseas territories, is the main national funding tool for the policy of preventing major
natural risks. However, most of the money is used to fund seismic reinforcement measures for
buildings, as part of the French West Indies earthquake plan, and cannot be used by local
authorities in the Pacific, as the French Environment Code does not expressly provide for this
possibility.
Breakdown of net funds to prevent major natural risks (FPRNM) 2009-2018
Source:
Caisse centrale de réassurance
The demographic, economic and social situations in overseas France can lead to difficult
trade-offs between development policies and policies to prevent and combat exposure to risk.
Similarly, the structural fragility of the overseas territories, combined with a lack of awareness
among residents and elected representatives of the new risks posed by climate change, means
that priority is given to investments with shorter-term benefits. More generally, in territories
which are periodically tested by social, economic and health crises, in addition to climatic
hazards, the logic of administrative and financial management of these crises’ consequences
tends to take precedence over preventive policies, which need to be developed beforehand
and over time.
The development of knowledge, the growing awareness of the effects of climate change,
the adaptation of planning and resources, and the search for innovative solutions which aim to
more effectively reconcile sometimes contradictory objectives, would help to make the
prevention of natural disasters a public policy priority.
70
Recommendations
In this context, the Court makes the following recommendations:
1.
promote climate expertise for all the overseas territories on a sufficiently detailed territorial
scale to enable public action to organise better prevention of natural disasters
(
Météo
France
, New Caledonia local authority - 2025
);
2. draw up and update all planning, prevention organisation and public information
documents relating to natural hazards for local authorities in overseas departments and
territories and in New Caledonia
(ministry of the interior and overseas territories, ministry
for ecological transition and territorial cohesion, New Caledonia and French Polynesia
authorities - 2025
);
3. assert, at national and regional levels, a strategic steering function responsible for
accumulating and disseminating knowledge relating to climate change and developing
preventive measures, in particular by adapting planning documents
(ministry of the interior
and overseas territories, ministry for ecological transition and territorial cohesion, New
Caledonia and French Polynesia authorities - 2024
);
4.
define for New Caledonia and French Polynesia, and on their initiative, the conditions for
setting up and funding a natural risk prevention fund
(ministry of the interior and overseas
territories, New Caledonian and French Polynesian authorities - 2024
).
71
Protecting the health of vulnerable people during
heatwaves
In 2003, a heatwave caused almost 15,000 excess deaths in France
11
, mainly among
elderly people living alone at home and in social and medico-social facilities.
The Court of Accounts looked at the impact of heatwaves on health, particularly for the
most vulnerable: the elderly living at home or in institutions, pregnant women, young children,
people suffering from chronic diseases, people with disabilities and the homeless. It did not
take into account the situation of people impacted because of their professional or physical
activity, or the situation of prisoners.
Among the measures adopted since 2003 are the introduction of heatwave plans, the
triggering of specific weather alerts, the obligation for municipalities to keep lists of elderly and
isolated people, and the installation of cool rooms in residential homes for dependent elderly
people (
Ehpad
). However, the number of deaths recorded during heatwaves, particularly in
2020 and 2022 (an excess of almost 2,000 and 2,800 deaths respectively), shows that the
health risk is still insufficiently controlled. Furthermore, the health impact of heatwaves is too
often measured using mortality data alone, and rarely in terms of their long-term consequences
on health.
Heatwaves and their impact on health still poorly measured
A health watch is organised every year between 1
st
June and 15 September by
Santé
publique France
, which shows that the increase in mortality linked to heatwaves in France
between 2014 and 2022 is 33,000 deaths.
In terms of prevention, an
ORSEC
-health management plan for heatwaves defines four
warning levels (green-yellow-orange-
red) which alert the population when ‘biometeorological’
indicators are exceeded.
Not all departments are exposed to the same level of risk: the south of France is already
experiencing higher heat-related mortality than the rest of France.
Climate projections for the next 20 years point to a widespread expansion of heatwaves,
with only the Channel coastline spared. In addition, urban heat islands can increase
temperatures by up to 8° C, making Paris the city with the highest mortality risk among 854
European cities.
Compared with the large number of publications on mortality, there are far fewer studies
on the effects of heatwaves on morbidity and healthcare use. The Court therefore focused on
the morbidity caused by heatwaves by matching data from
Météo France
with data from the
national health data system for each department in mainland France.
When heatwaves last for more than three days, there is a 5-10 % increase in use of
emergency care, across all age groups. When they last for more than seven days, there is a
15 % increase in use of emergency care for children under the age of two. There have also
been cases of diuretic intoxication, with a time lag. Among the sharply rising number of callouts
of the Paris fire brigade (BSPP), those relating to the death of people aged over 85 rose by
28 % between the fourth and sixth day, and by 53 % after seven days.
During heatwaves, hospital admissions are slightly down, due to fewer accidents as a
result of reduced physical activity. On the other hand, in both emergency and inpatient
departments, the use of care is particularly marked in the field of renal health (acute kidney
11
Between 4 and 18 August 2003, the number of deaths rose by more than 75% compared with the national average
for the same period from 2000 to 2002.
72
failure, pyelonephritis) and, to a lesser extent, in urology (renal colic, urinary retention) and
pneumology (pneumopathy).
The number of GP consultations remains stable, but the proportion of elderly people
consulting their GPs increases at the beginning of heatwaves, as do the proportion of young
children after seven days. In addition, the number of psychologist sessions reimbursed by
mutual health insurance companies is increasing.
From 2018 to 2022, heatwaves caused a 4% increase in deaths in
Ehpad
rising by 18 %
when they lasted more than 7 days. In home nursing services, a heatwave lasting more than
four days increases deaths by 2 %.
Little is known about the health situation of homeless people living in France, 50 % of
whom are in Paris. The non-
profit organisation ‘
Le Collectif des morts de la rue’
recorded 611
deaths in 2022, but no link was established with the heatwaves. During heatwaves, callouts of
the Paris fire brigade to these people increases by 18% over the first three days and by 24 %
after seven days.
A public response that needs to be scaled up
The latest data and the outlook for mortality and morbidity in the event of heatwaves
mean that public action needs to be stepped up.
The first step is to build up a body of scientific knowledge on the effects of heatwaves.
In addition to existing epidemiological studies, it is necessary to develop clinical research
based on the examination of patient files, as well as health insurance expertise to measure the
effects of heatwaves on health expenditure.
The capacity of all hospital, social and medico-social buildings to guarantee summer
resilience should be rapidly assessed.
When it comes to prevention, communicating with the public is essential. Among the
measures available, use of ‘FR
-
Alert’ to send individual alerts
12
, which was not used during the
heatwaves of 2022 and 2023, could be helpful.
The list of medicines requiring special precautions during heatwaves, drawn up by
ANSM
(the French National Agency for Medicines and Health Products Safety), must be consulted
on with learned societies, hospital federations and the non-profit organisations for users, and
must be widely disseminated among health professionals.
The municipal register of elderly and isolated people, which records less than 10 % of
the people concerned, could be improved by replacing the requirement for consent to be
included with systematic inclusion and the possibility of objecting.
In the context of a systemic crisis with several simultaneous failings
13
, the effectiveness
of the operational response depends on the preparation beforehand, particularly by the
prefects, who steer the crisis response at local level. In support of the prefect's action, and in
particular to avoid overcrowding in emergency departments, the regional health agency must
ensure that ‘white plans’ (emergency response plans) are rapidly put in place in the p
rimary
care sector and that ‘blue plans’ (risk management plans) are prepared for medical and social
care facilities and services. It is also responsible for supporting independent action by health
professionals to help vulnerable people at home (non-prescription care by independent nurses,
prescription renewals by pharmacists).
12
FR-Alert is a population alert and information system that has been rolled out nationwide since June 2022. The
system sends a written message in real time to anyone with a mobile phone once it is switched on, informing them
of their presence in a danger zone and what they should do to protect themselves (chemical, nuclear, meteorological
risks, etc.).
13 Red alert (extreme heatwave), power supply or rail network failure, telecommunications breakdown, fire requiring
evacuation, difficulties accessing drinking water, etc.
73
The various outreach initiatives for the most disadvantaged groups during periods of
extreme heat, which supplement permanent measures (outreach workers, basic health care
service, etc.), are still not enough to protect the health of homeless people. Clearing camps
and shanty towns exposes the people concerned to health risks, especially dehydration. If no
alternative accommodation is available, such clearance could be suspended during the orange
and red alert periods, with increased attention given to ensuring access to water.
74
Recommendations
The Court makes the following recommendations:
1.
carry out the work needed to improve knowledge of the consequences of heatwaves on
the health of vulnerable people, adapt this work to the specific characteristics of overseas
France and improve monitoring and warning indicators
(ministry of labour, health and
solidarity, ministry for ecological transition and territorial cohesion, CNAM
);
2.
acquire the means to improve knowledge of the health situation of homeless people, by
developing a health database linked to the information system of the integrated reception
and orientation service (SI-SIAO), in cooperation with the organisations managing
accommodation and care facilities
(ministry of labour, health and solidarity, ministry for
ecological transition and territorial cohesion
);
3.
involve learned societies and non-profit organisations for users in the
ANSM
’s preparation
of the list of medicines of interest in the event of a heatwave, and systematically
disseminate it to health professionals
(doctors, pharmacists, nurses) (ministry of labour,
health and solidarity
);
4.
broaden the criteria for including the most vulnerable people on the municipal register and
replace prior annual consent with a permanent right to object
(ministry of the interior and
overseas territories, ministry of labour, health and solidarity
);
5. prepare a list of health, social and medico-social facilities to assess their adaptation to
heatwaves
(ministry of labour, health and solidarity, ministry for ecological transition and
territorial cohesion
).
75
Adapting cereal crops to climate change
France is the European Union's leading cereals producer. In 2021, it accounted for 27 %
of common wheat production, 21 % of grain maize production and 22 % of barley production.
In 2020, cereals covered 8.9 million hectares (Mha). Silage maize (harvested green, whole
plant) occupied 1.4 Mha, followed by other cereals in a very small minority: triticale
14
, durum
wheat, sorghum and oats. In total, cereal crops cover 36 % of the utilised agricultural area
(UAA) and are found throughout France, with the exception of mountainous areas, the
Mediterranean rim and the French overseas territories. More than half the cereals consumed
in France are used to feed livestock. The French industry also exports around half its
production, generating the second-
largest agricultural surplus (€6.8bn in 2021) behind
alcoholic beverages.
This key sector for French agriculture has to reconcile various issues: food sovereignty,
production for export, the agro-ecological transition and the sharing of water resources.
Its activities and performance must now be considered in the light of the climate, because
agriculture, which emits greenhouse gases while also generating a carbon sink, is particularly
sensitive to climate change.
The consequences of climate change over the last 20 years
The effects of climate change have been felt in cereal yields, which have been stagnating
since the beginning of the century, whereas they had been increasing for 50 years thanks to
genetic progress. The deterioration in soil quality caused by the simplification of rotations and
intensive use partly explains this trend. Added to this phenomenon is the increase in the
frequency and intensity of extreme events
–
droughts or excessive rainfall
–
which pose a
threat to crops and are combined with the difficulty of anticipating these events.
According to the simulations, average yields should not be much affected in the future in
France, except in the south of the country, where the most marked changes will be
concentrated, mainly due to lower rainfall. This is particularly true of maize, which starts
growing in July. Depending on the region and on development conditions for the industry,
maize could be replaced by sorghum, which is more resistant to drought. Beyond these
average trends, inter-annual variations linked to climatic hazards are expected to increase,
intensifying losses in the case of a ten-year event.
14
A hybrid between wheat (durum or common) and rye, grown mainly as a fodder crop.
76
Simulation of average annual common wheat crop losses in a 2050 climate (as
part of the RCP 8.5 scenario of the 5th IPCC report)
Source: data from the thesis of Dorothée Kapsambelis, winner of the Court
of Accounts 2023 thesis prize. Simulations by the
Caisse Centrale de
Réassurance
(CCR) in partnership with the
Institut Agro Rennes-Angers
and
Météo France
A gradual and inevitable adaptation
Before 2020, it was difficult to identify public policies specifically designed to promote
adaptation. Adaptation measures did exist, but few were labelled as such, apart from the
measures set out in the national climate change adaptation programme (
PNACC
). However,
the ministry of agriculture does not have the data to identify and replenish the amounts invested
specifically in adaptation or to better document the environmental effort made, particularly in
the green budget.
The "
Varenne agricole de l’eau et de l’adaptation au changement climatique
" of 2021
marked a turning point, with adaptation becoming a priority for public action. The consultation
launched by government in 2023 on the reference warming trajectory for adaptation to climate
change (
TRACC
) will lead to the definition of a specific adaptation plan for agriculture. The
ministry of agriculture will have to develop the capacity to monitor actions to promote
adaptation, their funding and their results, including to enable them to be properly evaluated.
Active research into adapting cereal crops to climate change
France has a comprehensive cereals research and innovation system. It includes both
private and public stakeholders (seed producers, the Arvalis technical institute, the French
National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and the Environment (
INRAE
), the French
agricultural research and international cooperation organisation (
CIRAD
) and their academic
partners), which have developed a range of technical levers for adaptation. It is up to farmers
to make the most of this system, depending on the soil, climate and material conditions of their
business.
Since the end of the 1990s, researchers have been studying the expected impacts of
climate change on agriculture, and the work has led to progress on adaptation solutions for
various sectors at local level. Genetic innovation, of
which France’s leadership is important,
77
has contributed to this. The plant variety certificate, which replaces the patent in Europe, allows
cereal varieties to be developed in an open way, using government-approved specifications.
Research and innovation, both public and private, are thus one of the driving forces
behind adaptation. They have made it possible to identify and develop techniques likely to
reduce climate-related risks including varietal selection, crop diversification, soil moisture
retention, controlled and precision irrigation, agro-ecological practices, agro-forestry, etc.
Individually or in combination, these techniques must be designed and implemented in a way
that is consistent with the objectives of mitigating climate change and maintaining biodiversity.
They must also be planned as part of a long-term strategy to secure this essential component
of French agriculture for the future.
Summary of the adaptation of cereal crops to climate change 2000-2023
Source: Court of Accounts
Various technical levers to be rolled out, structural transformations to be
anticipated
Among the various technical levers available, some improve existing practices, such as
bringing forward sowing dates or planting earlier varieties. Others require systemic changes,
such as crop diversification, soil conservation and agroforestry. To enable these
developments, the initial and continuing training system plays a major role, with farmers called
upon to develop engineering skills to combine all the parameters as effectively as possible.
However, habits, norms and overlapping interests are holding back the necessary
systemic transformations. The latter are also riskier for farmers, who need to be reassured by
successful experiments or rely on ‘system references’ that ca
n be reproduced or adapted
locally. It is therefore important to strengthen experimental or pilot farms that can demonstrate
the success of some of these systemic transformations.
78
Similarly, the reform of the insurance system at the beginning of 2023, which should
encourage farmers to invest in equipping their farms and thus protect themselves in the short
term against climatic hazards, is not accompanied by an incentive to undertake the systemic
transformations needed to adapt to climate change. Future changes to the CAP, by far the
most powerful tool for supporting agriculture, could encourage pioneering farmers who are
undertaking these transformations.
79
Recommendations
In the light of all these findings, the Court makes the following recommendations:
1.
design and update a dashboard to specifically monitor actions and funding linked to the
adaptation of agriculture to climate change
(ministry of agriculture and food sovereignty -
2025
);
2.
provide financial support and accreditation for experiments in structural transformation
aimed at adapting crops to climate change
(ministry of agriculture and food sovereignty -
2025)
.
80
Mountain resorts and climate change
France is a major destination for winter tourism with 53.9 million skier-days, ranking it
second in the world. Whereas in other countries, ski areas are run by the private sector, in
France they are a public service, organised mainly by the municipalities. The ski lift industry
generates annual sales of €1.6bn, and overnight stays in the mountains account fo
r 22.4 % of
all overnight stays in France.
The purpose of the audit carried out by the financial courts was to identify the impact of
climate change on winter tourism in mountain areas and examine how resorts have adapted
to it. It was based on monitoring 42 resorts, spread across the
Alps
, the
Pyrenees
, the
Massif
Central
and the
Jura
, to illustrate the diversity of areas and situations.
The French ski business model is running out of steam
At the end of the 20th century, ski resorts were able to rely on growth in ski tourism,
which in turn led to growth in property infrastructure and ski lifts. Since the beginning of the
21st century, however, the business model for ski resorts has been permanently affected by
climate change. From the end of the 2000s, the decline in skiing activity and the increasing
unsuitability of the resorts' infrastructure undermined the financial equilibrium of ski area
operations and the local economy that partly depends on them.
This trend is exacerbated by climate change, which is having a greater impact in the
mountains than in low-lying areas. According to scientific forecasts, this phenomenon is set to
intensify in the medium term, with more marked consequences for snow conditions and risks
originating in glacial and periglacial environments. This applies to both snowfall and artificial
snow.
The vulnerability of resorts varies depending on their exposure to climate risk, the scale
of their economic activity and the financial strength of the local authority on which they depend.
Nonetheless, they will all be affected to a greater or lesser extent by 2050, and some resorts
could hope to continue operating beyond that date. However, the resorts to the south of the
Alps will be affected more quickly than the others.
More and more resorts are already unable to break even. The local authorities concerned
will therefore have to bear an increasingly heavy financial burden. As a result, they need to be
extremely cautious when it comes to investment.
Adaptation policies are not up to the challenge
Snow production makes it possible to ensure reliable snow cover in the short term.
However, it provides only relative and temporary protection against the effects of climate
change. Its cost is high, and its effectiveness tends to diminish as temperatures rise.
Furthermore, the impact of this production on water resources appears to be underestimated.
Water withdrawal authorisations for snow production should take greater account of climate
forecasts.
Diversification initiatives are rarely backed up by a comprehensive plan. There is little
coordination between the initiatives of the local authorities, leading to a risk of competition
between areas.
The government’s ecological planning initiatives, which are of little use to the mountain
tourism sector, do not provide any real impetus for change. The same is true of the regions,
which do not seek to influence local decision-making, despite their powers in terms of tourism
planning. However, they in fact
focus their subsidies on boosting snow production, without
taking into account the prospects of climate change, particularly in the
Alps
.
81
In order to structure the actions of local authorities more effectively, real climate change
adaptation plans need to be put in place, which can be enforced against public funding bodies.
Governance to be reviewed and funding to be rethought
With governance centred at municipal level and insufficient consolidation of authorities,
the current structure does not allow mountain stakeholders to adapt to the realities of climate
change at the level of a specific region.
Like other major ski countries, it would be in France’s interest to promote a structure that
brings together all the players concerned around regional projects and broader governance,
to preserve resources and enhance the value of natural areas. This is all the more necessary
as industrial wastelands are appearing in France's mountainous regions: almost 200 unused
facilities, which have not been dismantled, have been identified nationwide, but the law does
not provide a sufficient framework for their future.
In financial terms, the Court estimated that ski lift operators with annual revenues of less
than €15m receive public funding of €123.6m a year.
Unless there is a fundamental rethink of the resorts' business model, the level of public
subsidy can only increase given the climate projections, depriving them of the leeway they
need to develop four-season tourism
15
.
The financial stakes are all the higher given that the cost of the initial measures to adapt
to cli
mate change in the resorts is currently estimated at €91.70m per year.
Weight of public spending in the revenue of resorts generating less than €15m in
annual revenue (in €m)
Source: Court of Accounts
15
In the mountains, the most commercially exploitable seasons are winter and summer, as well as the so-called
‘shoulder seasons’ of spring and autumn. For the
sake of convenience, the Court refers to this type of tourism as
four-season
tourism.
82
Recommendations
In order to support adaptation to climate change while taking into account the very significant
disparities between resorts, the Court makes the following recommendations:
1.
Set up a national observatory bringing together all the data on vulnerability in mountain
areas, accessible to all local stakeholders (
ministry for ecological transition and territorial
cohesion
);
2. Adapt the regulatory framework so that water withdrawal authorisations for snow
production take account of climate forecasts (
ministry for ecological transition and territorial
cohesion
);
3. Formalise plans for adapting to climate change, based on the plans for the mountain
ranges provided for in the Climate and Resilience Law (
organising authorities, ministry for
ecological transition and territorial cohesion
);
4.
Make all public support for investment in ski resorts conditional on the content of climate
change adaptation plans (
ministry for ecological transition and territorial cohesion,
regions
,
departments);
5.
Implement a system of governance for resorts that is no longer the sole responsibility of
local authorities (
ministry of the interior and overseas territories, local authorities
);
6. Set up a climate change adaptation fund to finance diversification measures and the
dismantling of obsolete installations, financed by the proceeds from the tax on ski lifts
(
ministry for ecological transition and territorial cohesion, ministry of the economy, finance
and industrial and digital sovereignty
).