In several European countries, including France, significant discrepancies between forecasts and actual public revenues have been observed since the health crisis. A loss of confidence in the soundness of budget forecasts would weaken the anchoring role of budgetary rules, thereby threatening the credibility of budgetary policy. One of the levers for improving the accuracy of public revenue forecasts and removing any suspicion of bias lies in the intervention of independent budgetary institutions (IBIs), such as the Haut conseil des finances publiques (HCFP) in France. The strengthening of the mandate and resources of the HCFP is the subject of several discussions within the public authorities. The Government, the Senate and the National Assemblyhave each launched their own work, and an action plan was presented on 3 March 2025 by the Government to improve revenue forecasting in France. This note, approved by the Council of Mandatory Contributions at its meeting on 7 May 2025, examines the role of IBIs in revenue forecasting in nine European countries (Germany, Austria, Belgium, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and the United Kingdom) and proposes ways in which the HCFP's remit could be developed to help restore confidence in tax forecasting in France.
