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The situation and outlook of public finances

COUR DES COMPTES

In 2018, public deficit has once more reduced, to 2.5 GDP points, albeit less than in 2017. The public debt-to-GDP ratio has stopped rising, for the first time in ten years.
The trajectory set for the April 2019 Stability programme foresees an increase in deficit and debt this year, due to the conversion of competitiveness and employment tax credit (CICE) into a reduction in social contributions, followed by a decline as from 2020, at a much slower rate than under the previous programme.
While the 2019 forecast is achievable, despite the risk of overrunning expenditure targets, the 2020-2022 trajectory - which does not take account of the measures announced at the end of April following the Great National Debate - has many weaknesses, is different to our neighbours’ and is not consistent with the public finance programming act of January 2018.

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